Top 10 Best Forex Brokers in Canada 2020 [Canadian Forex ...
Top 10 Best Forex Brokers in Canada 2020 [Canadian Forex ...
Best Forex Brokers Canada 2020 - Top FX brokers for CA ...
10 Best Forex Brokers Canada for 2020 - ForexBrokers.com
Forex trading Canada Best Forex Canada Reviews for 2020
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The Best Canadian Forex Brokers for 2020
I’m looking to connect with other Forex traders in Vancouver, Canada to trade with and learn from and also share my knowledge with them. What is a good resource for finding these people?
Started my journey in June when I turned 18, the legal age required to trade in Canada. Ever since I dedicated myself to the craft of trading I can say it has made me more disciplined in many aspects in my life. I had to come up with strategies to remove overtrading and that 9-5 mentality of trading everyday. It took me some time to realize that trading everyday exposes your equity to a high amount of risk no matter how good the setup looks. Fast forward to November life is great I am making 15,000 per month and I am a funded FTMO trader. This is a manifestation of my efforts and energy going into the trading career that I have birthed. I love my life soo much I am financially free and I can consistently generate profits from the forex market. I started trading live in September, September and October were net negative months but the month of October was the month when I made over 1000 dollars in a day, This post is mainly to inspire others to never give up. My future is going to be amazing by the time. Always stay focused and never quit on something that you cant go 3 hours without thinking about it.
For Canadian Clients of VantageFX (or Canadian Forex Traders in General)
As you likely already know, VantageFX will no longer service Canadians residents as of Nov 30th. This is unfortunate, since VantageFX has done an excellent job serving Canadian clients with higher leverage account options from a well regulated and trusted broker. Through contacts in the industry, we've been made aware of a new retail account offering at Pacific Union. Pacific Union has a good history of servicing institutional accounts and has only just started taking on retail clients, but they are positioned to service the Canadian clients in the space that VantageFX has left behind. Further, we were made aware of Pacific Union first by contacts at VantageFX, and then this recommendation was backed up by a trusted source who works closely with both companies. Again, to be very clear, this post isn't to give undue attention to some random broker.. we are providing this info because Pacific Union is a proper alternative for Canadian based traders that will no longer be serviced by VantageFX. On that note, I've updated the wiki to include Pacific Union Prime - https://puprime.com: Subreddit's Canadian Brokers Wiki Page The only major difference I have noticed so far is lacking MT5, but the word is that Pacific Union will be reviewing MT5 and other enhancements to their offing next quarter after they get past the launch of their retail offering. Key highlights from my perspective:
Up to 500:1 leverage available for Canadians, and while that much leverage may not be needed, even just 100:1 is decent compared to ~33:1 leverage set by IIROC with onshore brokers.
Client funds are segregated at an Australian bank, so you're getting some overlap of Aussie banking / regulatory rules and that's a huge plus when it comes to safety of funds and the finance side of things
No fee on credit card deposits / withdrawals, and no fee on Visa Debit and MasterCard Debit deposit / withdrawals. Transactions are completed within 30 minutes.
No fee on Interac e-Transfer deposits.
Remember, going offshore means you lose CIPF protection on funds, so a well vetted and properly regulated broker is a must! UPDATE #1: Oct 6th: Took this post off sticky and redacted some info as the connection between VantageFX and Pacific Union Prime was not "official". Pacific Union is still a great alternative / replacement for Canadian clients seeing higher leverage accounts and who are no longer serviced after VantageFX left Canada. UPDATE #2, Oct 8th: Adjusted this thread again to best reflect where Pacific Union Prime fits with VantageFX and former Canadian VantageFX cleints.
The scene: I receive an email from my father. He sent me this link: https://cayarekylajules.gitlab.io/julescayarek/?placement=silverprice.org&creative=476738494285&campid=11533504265&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIu-_F-aH27AIV8QFoCB3HOQY8EAEYASAAEgKq6fD_BwE This was my response: --- If it seems too good to be true, it probably is. If your "investment" strategy seems akin to placing a bet in a casino, then you're not really investing. You're gambling. The significance of seeing a world government backing a cryptocurrency is high. Presumably it would be a cryptocurrency designed and supported by that country's central bank. Many countries (including Canada) are currently working on such projects. The catch though is that governments are not interested in careless speculation. They want stability in their national currencies. There are already several cryptocurrencies out there that are designed as "stablecoins," ie. they are designed to try to be pegged to the USD or Euro. So obviously a cryptocurrency that is designed to be pegged to fiat will not see any significant appreciation, save for marching in lockstep with the pegged national currency. There are still a lot of good uses for digital stable-coins, as opposed to traditional fiat. They would work very similar to current fiat currencies, and their stability would be an asset to certain classes of investors. Currently, they are used when investors/speculators think that other cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin are about to drop in price. The traders move their funds out of bitcoin and into the stablecoin, so the value is preserved, and then if the cryptocurrency actually drops in price, they can sell their stablecoin and buy the cryptocurrency again, ending up with a greater quantity of the cryptocurrency than they had when they started. The thing about cryptocurrencies that concerns me the most is that so few people understand how they work, and for those people, there is a serious risk of losing funds. Does anyone think that it's a good idea for someone with a grade 8 education to have access to a trading account where they can trade margined forex or leveraged derivatives? No. And for a lot of people, a true understanding of the characteristics and value of cryptocurrencies requires a good deal of financial and banking acumen, plus a solid grounding in economics. And perhaps it would help to have some mathematics and coding experience on the side. Edit: And to be clear, that site is also a scam.
My journey to FIRE is going amazing and I am confident I will maintain that status within the next 10 years
Started my journey in June when I turned 18, the legal age required to trade in Canada. Ever since I dedicated myself to the craft of trading I can say it has made me more disciplined in many aspects in my life. I had to come up with strategies to remove overtrading and that 9-5 mentality of trading everyday. It took me some time to realize that trading everyday exposes your equity to a high amount of risk no matter how good the setup looks. Fast forward to November life is great I am making 15,000 per month and I am a funded FTMO trader. This is a manifestation of my efforts and energy going into the trading career that I have birthed. I love my life soo much I am financially free and I can consistently generate profits from the forex market. I started trading live in September, September and October were net negative months but the month of October was the month when I made over 1000 dollars in a day, This post is mainly to inspire others to never give up. My future is going to be amazing by the time. Always stay focused and never quit on something that you cant go 3 hours without thinking about it.
Hello, My wife and I have lived in Canada all of our lives and are planning to move in two years. We haven’t settled on anywhere specific yet as we are entertaining and researching all ideas. I am an accountant who is currently completing their CPA designation. By the time I complete this, I will have four years of accounting experience. I currently work for a smaller firm, however I will gladly entertain the idea of working at a Big Four in order to move internationally. The reason for the move is to accomplish my dream of being a professional trader, specifically in Forex and other OTC derivatives. This is something I am unable to legally achieve at my current location (AB, Canada). My wife has an education background, specifically in teaching braille. She will most likely be taking classes over these next two years in order to teach ESL. We are both also looking forward to learning a new language. We are hoping to nail down our location soon so that we can start learning the country’s primary language over the next two years. One more requirement the wife is looking for is hot weather for most of the year. We live in Canada and while we are used to the cold as balls weather, we are ready to move somewhere warm. I’m making this post to:
Find out how realistic that a country will accept us living there and what we can do to improve the chance of acceptance
Acquire tips and suggestions for planning our move
Hi everyone, My first post here. I've been consuming the content for a while here. Thank you very much for all the content. I have a question now I was wondering if anyone would know anything about. I'm planning to do a Master's in Canada and I'm looking for an interesting + in-demand field in Canada. I am interested in Forex and trading in general and I'm thinking of becoming a full-time trader if I get the chance in near future. I'm also interested in coding and computers in general. I've been told that Fintech is a trending job right now. It sounds like the perfect combination of finance and computers. So I was wondering about the following things:
What are the job opportunities for a person with an M.A in Fintech?
What are the job opportunities in Canada?
Generally speaking, what are the job opportunities in Canada for someone who knows how to trade.
*I apologize for my ignorance. I'm very new to forex and know very little about finance.
Hey guys, I'm a new forex trader in Ontario Canada. Over here your gains are treated as income and are taxed as self-employment income. Are there any ways to reduce taxes other than writing off business expenses? Also, are you able to write off things like food expenses? Thanks a lot. EDIT: I thought this didn't have to be mentioned, but I'm looking for LEGAL ways to reduce taxes, lol.
https://preview.redd.it/vrq329h41vs51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9cdd74e5bfd8c7ca678fcb6663d37d87bc9f7b2 With the dramatic increase in the number of traders and investors in Canada that are using PrimeXBT, one question has been asked recently more than others which is whether PrimeXBT is safe for Canadian traders. The number of Canadian users at PrimeXBT has been growing rapidly throughout 2020 as a sign that the tools and features on the platform are opening up new opportunities for interacting in the market in more optimal ways. This guide covers whether or not PrimeXBT is safe for Canadian traders, and looks at some of the features and tools of the platform. The Canadian Market in 2020 Like much of the rest of the world, the Canadian market has seen some of the highest levels of all volatility in 2020 that have been seen in many years, or even at all throughout the history of cryptocurrency. The Canadian market has seen renewed growth following the contractions throughout 2018 and much of 2019 when the global bear market in the cryptocurrency space drove many retail investors back out of the market after the exponential growth of 2017. This has led many Canadian traders to wonder whether we are on the brink of another major bull run as was seen both in 2017 as well as 2013, and that would potentially see the price of Bitcoin driven up to the range of $50,000 or more. The Exponential Growth of PrimeXBT With the backdrop of the excitement within the global cryptocurrency market in general, and the Canadian cryptocurrency market more specifically, PrimeXBT has been perfectly positioned for exponential growth since its launch in early 2018. The platform initially launched at the start of 2018 with a waiting list of more than 150,000 traders, and this showed the interest in the platform that was present even before it came onto the market. As a result of the unique tools and features provided by PrimeXBT, it has grown exponentially over the past few years to become the world’s leading multi-asset margin trading platform and today managing up to $2 billion worth of global trade every day. What is PrimeXBT? https://preview.redd.it/iax449j91vs51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=24ea73d33d4f74afedf75a55b5a51967e95dea04 PrimeXBT is a margin trading-centric platform that provides high leverage trading on a wide range of cryptoassets as well as many of the world’s leading traditional assets. Traders at PrimeXBT are able to access up to 100X leverage on a wide range of cryptoassets that include BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, and EOS. This is whilst also being able to access up to 500X leverage on a range of traditional assets like stock indices such as the S&P500 and FTSE100, forex pairs such as USD/EUR and AUD/CAD, and commodities such as gold and oil. PrimeXBT: Security Features From a security perspective, PrimeXBT is one of the leading trading platforms in the crypto market, and has built a strong reputation for being a safe and reliable platform to trade on. Much of this is as a result of the bank-grade security features that are implemented throughout PrimeXBT that include mandatory Bitcoin address whitelisting and hardware security modules with rating of FIPS PUB 140-2 Level 3 or higher. By working to add advanced security solutions throughout its platform, PrimeXBT has shown a strong commitment to protecting the funds and data of its users. PrimeXBT: Security Track Record While there are many other platforms in the cryptocurrency space that have suffered devastating hacks over the past 2 or 3 years, PrimeXBT is one of a small number of top tier platforms that have remained hack-free throughout this period. A good example of this is the Binance hack in 2019 that saw the platform lose more than $40 million of its users’ funds, and more recently the KuCoin hack where more than $150 million was lost by that platform. In contrast, PrimeXBT has never been hacked and has never been breached by hackers and as such remains as one of the most trusted platforms in the market, having a clean security track record. PrimeXBT: Excellent Customer Support In 2019, a study of the top 5 crypto margin trading platforms found that PrimeXBT has the best customer service of all 5, and also was the only platform out of the 5 to have full marks for all for metrics. These metrics were politeness, responsiveness, helpfulness, and the range of different communication channels that were available to users. By having an excellent customer support structure, PrimeXBT has ensured that its users are able to get fast and easy solutions to the problems and that there is always a direct line of communication open with the admin at the platform to be able to effectively deal with any issues that arise. Other Advantages of Using PrimeXBT PrimeXBT also provides a number of other advantages that are unique to the platform including providing the lowest fee schedule of any major cryptocurrency trading platform in the market with a low flat rate of 0.05% applied to all trades, irrespective of the size of a trade or the asset being traded. As well as this, PrimeXBT’s users can enjoy a robust trading engine that is built into the core of the PrimeXBT platform and that can execute up to 12,000 trades per second with an average trade time of less than 7.02 ms. PrimeXBT also has a unique 4-tier referral program where the traders can generate revenue streams from direct referrals, as well as indirect referrals up to 4 levels deep, with this dramatically increasing the profitability of affiliate activities, and netting the top 3 affiliates on the platform more than $1 million in 2019. In Summary PrimeXBT is a safe and well-reputed trading platform for Canadian traders and this is the reason for its exponential growth of users and volume within Canada over the past months. As well as being a safe platform to trade at, PrimeXBT also provides a range of unique tools and features to use in order to maximize profitability in the cryptocurrency and traditional asset markets. To understand more about the security features on PrimeXBT that have protected its users, check out PrimeXBT’s Security page.
Approximately seven months ago the Canadian financial regulatory authorities enacted a ban on brokers offering binary options to all retail traders. Unfortunately, these actions seemed to have had little to no results on certain brokers that have implemented new tactics in order to gather money from unsuspecting investors. On April 12th the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, more commonly referred to the IIROC cautioned Canadian traders not to be duped by fraudulent online trading brokers attempting to unlawfully sell binary options under the pretense of legitimate brokers regulated by the IIROC.
Binary options scams still exist
Recently the ombudsman has been made aware of at least two brokers that misleadingly state that they are regulated by IIROC:
CFDtradeoption.com – run by Westrade Holdings, Inc;
Globaloptionsmarket.net.
Binary options cannot be offered or sold to retail traders in Canada and the regulator has issued plenty of warnings, imploring Canadian citizens not to invest in these fraudulent companies. Under no circumstances are IIROC regulated entities authorized to sell binary options to retail investors in Canada. This troubling tendency is bringing up concerns about how effective a blanket ban on offering of such toxic products as binaries to stop scams. ESMA, the European Securities and Markets Authority has recently put in rules that prohibit regulated brokers from offering binary options to retail investors. However, these recent developments in Canada call into question on whether a ban in Europe would, in fact, produce the wanted effect.
Opposition to the binary options ban
It should be noted that when the Canadian regulatory authorities first suggested to ban binary options, the proposal encountered stern opposition. The Investment Industry Association of Canada (IIAC), which represents 130 Dealer Member firms regulated by IIROC, asserted that the injunction should only include binary options scams offered by unregulated binary options brokers. The IIAC further maintained that its members should be allowed to offer binary options to retail traders. Interestingly enough there have been proposals to allow trading binary options on an exchange, as this is allowed in the United States. However, opposed to that line of thinking are organizations such as the Canadian Advocacy Council for Canadian CFA Institute Societies (CAC), which heavily supported the binary options ban proposal and even went beyond it by questioning the status of OTC (Over the Counter) or more commonly known as retail Forex trading. The council questioned whether the sale of similar financial instruments to retail investors should additionally be restricted.
Get help now
If you have fallen victim to a cryptocurrency scam, send a complaint to at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]), and we will do our very best to get into contact with you as soon as we can to initiate your funds recovery process.
Approximately seven months ago the Canadian financial regulatory authorities enacted a ban on brokers offering binary options to all retail traders. Unfortunately, these actions seemed to have had little to no results on certain brokers that have implemented new tactics in order to gather money from unsuspecting investors. On April 12th the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, more commonly referred to the IIROC cautioned Canadian traders not to be duped by fraudulent online trading brokers attempting to unlawfully sell binary options under the pretense of legitimate brokers regulated by the IIROC.
Binary options scams still exist
Recently the ombudsman has been made aware of at least two brokers that misleadingly state that they are regulated by IIROC:
CFDtradeoption.com – run by Westrade Holdings, Inc;
Globaloptionsmarket.net.
Binary options cannot be offered or sold to retail traders in Canada and the regulator has issued plenty of warnings, imploring Canadian citizens not to invest in these fraudulent companies. Under no circumstances are IIROC regulated entities authorized to sell binary options to retail investors in Canada. This troubling tendency is bringing up concerns about how effective a blanket ban on offering of such toxic products as binaries to stop scams. ESMA, the European Securities and Markets Authority has recently put in rules that prohibit regulated brokers from offering binary options to retail investors. However, these recent developments in Canada call into question on whether a ban in Europe would, in fact, produce the wanted effect.
Opposition to the binary options ban
It should be noted that when the Canadian regulatory authorities first suggested to ban binary options, the proposal encountered stern opposition. The Investment Industry Association of Canada (IIAC), which represents 130 Dealer Member firms regulated by IIROC, asserted that the injunction should only include binary options scams offered by unregulated binary options brokers. The IIAC further maintained that its members should be allowed to offer binary options to retail traders. Interestingly enough there have been proposals to allow trading binary options on an exchange, as this is allowed in the United States. However, opposed to that line of thinking are organizations such as the Canadian Advocacy Council for Canadian CFA Institute Societies (CAC), which heavily supported the binary options ban proposal and even went beyond it by questioning the status of OTC (Over the Counter) or more commonly known as retail Forex trading. The council questioned whether the sale of similar financial instruments to retail investors should additionally be restricted.
Get help now
If you are the victim of an HBC Broker scam be sure to send your complaint to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]), and we will do our very best to get into contact with you as soon as we can to initiate your funds recovery process.
Trade on a suite of powerful trading platforms designed to meet the demanding needs of active traders looking for maximum performance, flexibility and speed.Forex Trading Platforms Canada is heavily regulated. For many traders this is a good thing, but there are also some who think the strict regulations are a nuisance.
Hi all! I just started learning Forex trading last week and i don't have any professionals to guide me so i'm hoping i could find some help here. I'm not a very smart person when it comes to this so i apologize in advance if i end up asking pretty dumb questions.
So far i have learned about PIPs, leverage, stoploss for risk management and reading the candlestick chart. The topics in this area could be very broad so i'm wondering what are some of the other areas i should look into as well.
As a beginner, how do i know i'm confident enough to actually start trading with real money? I don't intend to jump straight into trading but i'm wondering how much time i should invest on researching and self-teaching.
Is it possible to invest as low as $10? I'm currently residing in Canada and i'm not sure which broker is the best to use.
I honestly do have A LOT more questions but i will settle for the three questions above i have for now. Would appreciate if there are any professionals out there who could guide me along. Thanks in advance! Edit: I have been approached by a couple of "traders" through private messages promoting their own websites and courses with a fee required from me. Please do not approach me for any self-promotion for your business. Thank you!
Trading YYY/ZZZ pair with XXX currency (related to question in FAQ)
I am learning alot about forex but I have not found an explicit answer to this question. I am a bit confused about trading a pair of currencies when I do not own either currency. For example, my account is funded with CAD, so if I trade USD/EUR, am I not risking cancelling out potential gains or multiplying losses based on the fluctuation of CAD/USD at the same time? The answer to this question in the FAQ makes it sounds like it is a non issue: From the FAQ:
" I AM CONFUSED ABOUT THIS - HOW CAN I GET CURRENCY XXX IF I'M TRADING YYY/ZZZ?? This confuses many new traders. When you create your FX account, you will be nominating what the base currency is, this is usually the currency where you live. Live in the United States? USD. Live in Canada? CAD. Live in Tokyo? JPY. Live in The EU? EUR and so on.... That is the currency that all trades will be paid out in. The pairs that you trade have no bearing on this outcome. It may help to think of it in this way: "I am going long / going short on the asset known as USD/JPY and will be paid out in my base currency." Don't look at the pair you are trading as multiple exchanges, look at it as a single vehicle, this may help you."
From a risk mitigation stand point, would it be best practice to only trade pairs based on CAD/XXX or would it make more sense to convert my CAD funds to USD for the long term and gamble that the exchange rate remains roughly constant? If there are any resources you know of that address this question, please let me know! Thanks!
Thoughts On The Market Series #1 - The New Normal?
Market Outlook: What to Make of This “New Normal”
By ****\* March 16, 2020 After an incredibly volatile week – which finished with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallying over 9% on Friday – I suppose my readers might expect me to be quite upbeat about the markets. Unfortunately, I persist in my overall pessimistic outlook for stocks, and for the economy in general. Friday’s rally essentially negated Thursday’s sell-off, but I don’t expect it to be the start of a sustained turnaround. We’re getting a taste of that this morning, with the Dow opening down around 7%. This selloff is coming on the back of an emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve of 100 basis points (to 0%-0.25%) on Sunday… along with the announcement of a new quantitative easing program of $700 billion. (I will write about this further over the next several days.) As I have been writing for many weeks, the financial bubble – which the Fed created by pumping trillions of dollars into the financial system – has popped. It will take some time for the bubble to deflate to sustainable levels. Today I’ll walk you through what’s going on in the markets and the economy… what I expect going forward and why… and what it means for us as traders. (You’ll see it’s not all bad news.)
Coronavirus’ Strain on the Global Economy
To start, let’s put things in perspective: This asset deflation was coming one way or another. Covid19 (or coronavirus) has simply accelerated the process. Major retailers are closing, tourism is getting crushed, universities and schools are sending students home, conventions, sporting events, concerts, and other public gatherings have been cancelled, banks and other financial service firms are going largely virtual, and there has been a massive loss of wealth. Restaurant data suggests that consumer demand is dropping sharply, and the global travel bans will only worsen the situation. Commercial real estate is another sector that looks particularly vulnerable. We are almost certain to see a very sharp and pronounced economic slowdown here in the United States, and elsewhere. In fact, I expect a drop of at least 5% of GDP over the next two quarters, which is quite severe by any standard. Sure, when this cycle is complete, there will be tremendous amounts of pent-up demand by consumers, but for the time being, the consumer is largely on the sidelines. Of course, the problems aren’t just in the U.S. China’s numbers look awful. In fact, the government there may have to “massage” their numbers a bit to show a positive GDP in the first quarter. Europe’s numbers will also look dreadful, and South Korea’s economy has been hit badly. All around the world, borders are being shut, all non-essential businesses are being closed, and people in multiple countries are facing a lockdown of historic proportions. The coronavirus is certainly having a powerful impact, and it looks certain that its impact will persist for a while. Consider global tourism. It added almost $9 trillion to the global economy in 2018, and roughly 320 million jobs. This market is in serious trouble. Fracking in the U.S. is another business sector that is in a desperate situation. Millions of jobs and tens of billions of loans are now in jeopardy. The derivative businesses that this sector supports will be likewise devastated as companies are forced to reduce their workforces or shut down due to the collapse in oil prices. This sector’s suffering will probably force banks to book some big losses despite attempts by the government to support this industry. In a similar way, the derivative businesses that are supported by the universities and colleges across America are going to really suffer. There are nearly 20 million students in colleges across the U.S. When they go home for spring vacation and do not return, the effect on the local businesses that colleges and university populations support will be devastating. What does this “new normal” mean going forward? Let’s take a look…
New Normal
The new normal may become increasingly unpleasant for us. We need to be ready to hunker down for quite some time. Beyond that, the government needs to handle this crisis far better in the future. The level of stupidity associated with the massive throngs of people trapped in major airports yesterday, for example, was almost unimaginable. Instead of facilitating the reduction of social contact and halting the further spread of the coronavirus, the management of the crowds at the airports produced a perfect breeding ground for the spread of the virus. My guess is that more draconian travel restrictions will be implemented soon, matching to some extent the measures taken across Europe. This will in turn have a further dampening effect on economic activity in the U.S., putting more and more pressure on the Fed and the government to artificially support a rapidly weakening economy. Where does this end up? It is too early to say, but a very safe bet is that we will have some months of sharply negative growth. Too many sectors of the economy are going to take a hit to expect anything else. The Fed has already driven interest rates to zero. Will that help? Unlikely. In fact, as I mentioned at the beginning of this update, the markets are voting with a resounding NO. The businesses that are most affected by the current economic situation will still suffer. Quantitative easing is hardly a cure-all. In fact, it has been one of the reasons that we have such a mess in our markets today. The markets have become addicted to the easy money, so more of the same will have little or no impact. We will need real economic demand, not an easier monetary policy. It won’t help support tourism, for example, or the other sectors getting smashed right now. The government will need to spend at least 5% of GDP, or roughly $1 trillion, to offset the weakness I see coming. Is it surprising that the Fed and the government take emergency steps to try to stabilize economic growth? Not at all. This is essentially what they have been doing for a long time, so it is completely consistent with their playbook. Next, I would anticipate the government implementing some massive public-works and infrastructure programs over the coming months. That would be very helpful, and almost certainly quite necessary. But there’s a problem with this kind of intervention from the government…
What Happens When You Eliminate the Business Cycle
The Fed’s foolish attempt to eliminate business cycles is a significant contributing factor to the volatility we are currently experiencing. Quantitative easing is nothing more than printing lots and lots of money to support a weak economy and give the appearance of growth and prosperity. In fact, it is a devaluation of the currency’s true buying power. That in turn artificially drives up the prices of other assets, such as stocks, real estate and gold – but it does not create true wealth. That only comes with non-inflationary growth of goods and services and associated increases in economic output. Inflation is the government’s way to keep people thinking they are doing better. To that point: We have seen some traditional safe-haven assets getting destroyed during this time of risk aversion. That has certainly compounded the problems of many investors. Gold is a great example. As the stock market got violently slammed, people were forced to come up with cash to support their losing positions. Gold became a short-term source of liquidity as people sold their gold holdings in somewhat dramatic fashion. It was one of the few holdings of many people that was not dramatically under water, so people sold it. The move may have seemed perverse, particularly to people who bought gold as a safe-haven asset, but in times of crisis, all assets tend to become highly correlated, at least short term. We saw a similar thing happen with long yen exposures and long Bitcoin exposures recently. The dollar had its strongest one-day rally against the yen since November 2016 as people were forced to sell huge amounts of yen to generate liquidity. Many speculators had made some nice profits recently as the dollar dropped sharply from 112 to 101.30, but they have been forced to book whatever profits they had in this position. Again, this was due to massive losses elsewhere in their portfolios. Is the yen’s sell-off complete? If it is not complete, it is probably at least close to an attractive level for Japanese investors to start buying yen against a basket of currencies. The major supplies of yen have largely been taken off the table for now. For example, the yen had been a popular funding currency for “carry” plays. People were selling yen and buying higher-yielding currencies to earn the interest rate difference between the liability currency (yen) and the funding currency (for example, the U.S. dollar). Carry plays are very unpopular in times of great uncertainty and volatility, however, so that supply of yen will be largely gone for quite some time. Plus, the yield advantage of currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar versus the yen is nearly gone. In addition, at the end of the Japanese fiscal year , there is usually heavy demand for yen as Japanese corporations need to bring home a portion of their overseas holdings for balance sheet window dressing. I don’t expect that pressure to be different this year. Just as the safe-haven assets of yen and gold got aggressively sold, Bitcoin also got hammered. It was driven by a similar theme – people had big losses and they needed to produce liquidity quickly. Selling Bitcoin became one of the sources of that liquidity.
Heavy Price Deflation Ahead
Overall, there is a chance that this scenario turns into something truly ugly, with sustained price deflation across many parts of the economy. We will certainly have price deflation in many sectors, at least on a temporary basis. Why does that matter over the long term? Price deflation is the most debilitating economic development in a society that is debt-laden – like the U.S. today. Prices of assets come down… and the debt becomes progressively bigger and bigger. The balance sheet of oil company Chesapeake Energy is a classic example. It’s carrying almost $10 billion worth of debt… versus a market cap of only about $600 million. Talk about leverage! When the company had a market cap of $10 billion, that debt level didn’t appear so terrifying. Although this is an extreme example for illustrative purposes, the massive debt loads of China would seem more and more frightening if we were to sink into flat or negative growth cycles for a while. The government’s resources are already being strained, and it can artificially support only so many failing companies. The U.S. has gigantic levels of debt as well, but it has the advantage of being the world’s true hegemon, and the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency. This creates a tremendous amount of leverage and power in financing its debt. The U.S. has been able to impose its will on its trading partners to trade major commodities in dollars. This has created a constant demand for the dollar that offsets, to a large extent, the massive trade deficit that the U.S. runs. For example, if a German company wants to buy oil, then it needs to hold dollars. This creates a constant demand for dollar assets. In short, the dollar’s status as the true global reserve currency is far more important than most people realize. China does not hold this advantage.
What to Do Now
In terms of how to position ourselves going forward, I strongly recommend that people continue with a defensive attitude regarding stocks. There could be a lot more downside to come. Likewise, we could see some panic selling in other asset classes. The best thing right now is to be liquid and patient, ready to pounce on special opportunities when they present themselves. For sure, there will be some exceptional opportunities, but it is too early to commit ourselves to just one industry. These opportunities could come in diverse sectors such as commercial real estate, hospitality, travel and leisure, and others. As for the forex markets, the volatility in the currencies is extreme, so we are a bit cautious. I still like the yen as a safe-haven asset. I likewise still want to sell the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar as liability currencies. Why? The Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have all taken aggressive steps recently, slashing interest rates. These currencies are all weak, and they will get weaker. Finding an ideal entry for a trade, however, is tricky. Therefore, we are being extra careful with our trading. We always prioritize the preservation of capital over generating profits, and we will continue with this premise. At the same time, volatility in the markets is fantastic for traders. We expect many excellent opportunities to present themselves over the coming days and weeks as prices get driven to extreme levels and mispricings appear. So stay tuned.
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