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Up about ~$14000 total as of this week in realized and unrealized gains. A less than impressive gain since my last update (was up about ~$12000 realized and unrealized) but whatever the hell it was that happened on CPI day did a number on me. Since many people appear to be having issues with images on Reddit lately, in addition to the above, here's the current positions written out.
I've significantly rebalanced my positions, the account I was using for holding shares has since been switched over to income generating energy plays on oil, natural gas, and uranium. I've also dumped a lot of my index shorts to open a little under $8000 in Apple and Amazon puts.
The food shortage plays aren't looking great, the harvest came in worse than expected this fall, but I may have gotten the timing for the pricing in of that bad harvest wrong. Will probably look to roll out and add to the agricultural positions to next spring/summer. Ag ETF positions omitted from picture because AutoMod didn't like them.
C0RN - 27.60 (last update 26.91)
10 2/17/23 31c
W3AT - 8.75 (last update 8.82)
10 1/20/23 17c
20 1/20/23 18c
S0YB - 26.46 (last update 26.88)
10 11/18 29c
10 2/17/23 29c
SPXS - 28.87 (last update 27.14)
8 11/4 30c
SPXU - 21.92
11 12/16 21c
SPY - 357.63 (last update 367.95)
4 11/18 330p
7 12/16 300p
4 3/17/23 255p
4 1/19/24 210p
AAPL - 138.83
100 12/16 80p
100 12/16 70p
50 6/16 60p
AMZN - 106.90
50 12/16 65p
Link to the post laying out my general thesis on this play. And since this somehow became a thing in the comments of that post - yeah, that's not a straight screenshot of any of my brokerage accounts, I put the images from Schwab, Fidelity, and ETrade together into one picture on MS Paint because I've got no interest in sharing my full accounts or account numbers with the internet.
I'm not a fan of diamond handing options, blew up my account once like that, now I take profits. The italicized positions are new since last update, and were bought with profits from closing stuff.
I added the Apple and Amazon shorts because they're the two shittiest, most overpriced companies in the market, along with Tesla (tessie is going to die hard and fast once the HF's and institutions that are long on it start blowing up). Apple's consumer graph looks incredibly similar to Nike's, and well, look what happened after their last ER. Amazon is currently a great company (AWS) tied to a shitberg of money losing (everything else AMZN does). Jassy was a horrifically bad choice to head up Amazon as a whole because he doesn't understand what their marketplace's competitive advantage actually is or how it's being destroyed. Price target on AAPL = 45ish, on AMZN 25ish. Their PE's are 23 and 96 respectively. Both AAPL and AMZN also currently have Unionizing issues that are just going to keep increasing. Sooner or later TSLA will get unionized as well, at least at the factories.
I'd like to have more Amazon and any Tesla short positions, but right now I can't find a good entry on them, so I'll keep waiting until I do.
My optimistic case for global harvests is now -20%. Every international analysis I've looked at points to excess production from countries that don't have it to make up the shortfall. Supposedly the US is/has prepared a brief on just how bad it is, and that is not available to the public. I am no longer sure this will be priced in before my current options expire. Looking at potentially rolling my current ones out about 6 months, will add to them if I do.
As per one of my previous DD's, we're now seeing increased migration and violence around the world, with a second competing currency bloc forming primarily around Russia and China. There are some other countries that get lumped in with that, but I'm doubtful they all stick, given the tensions between many of them.
I'll take a second to recommend u/Peruvian_Bull 's DD posts on the collapse of the dollar as global reserve currency, there has been absolute chaos and carnage in the Forex markets lately and his stuff from over a year ago is pretty much playing out perfectly.
China's economy is basically a zombie being propped up by threats of violence to banking and real estate executives and local government officials. Once the China National Party Congress meeting ends (runs from 10/16 though 10/22) the wheels probably come off in a very, very bad way.
Tehran continues to have increasing protests after the Basij (religious police, everyone hates them) murdered a 22 year old woman for not wearing a hijab. Food prices are now higher than they were during the Arab Spring. These protests aren't as big of a deal as some in the west want to pretend, but they're a bigger deal and have more popular support than you'd think from the press coverage (lack) on them. Food prices and inflation are high enough this could easily take a wild turn very unexpectedly and very fast in Iran/KSA/Iraq/Syria/Egypt. All of these countries have large populations of young men and the temperature will get very hot in them in a couple of months. (the basic formula for societal unrest is lots of young men + poor job/future prospects + hot weather + high prices = violence)
Russia continues to experience issues with it's plan to draft people, and continues losing in Ukraine. Western leaders appear to be pulling a repeat of the Treaty of Versailles mistakes of just thinking they can grind a country down indefinitely instead of giving them a way out. The Ukrainian provinces currently being fought over were in open rebellion/civil war for years before Russia invaded, and would make some nice "buffer states" in any peace deal. Russia's conventional army is basically gone at this point, going forwards they'll be fighting asymmetrically with cyber attacks and hits on infrastructure leading to spikes in energy prices or big drops in markets.
India has halted Rice exports, after shutting down Wheat exports earlier this summer. California's Rice crop is, to put it mildly, toast. The poorest people eat rice - this one is going to get bad going forward.
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