(Hey everyone, this is the SECOND half of the Finale, you can find the first half here)

The Dollar Endgame

True monetary collapses are hard to grasp for many in the West who have not experienced extreme inflation. The ever increasing money printing seems strange, alien even. Why must money supply grow exponentially? Why did the Reichsbank continue printing even as hyperinflation took hold in Germany?
What is not understood well are the hidden feedback loops that dwell under the surface of the economy.
The Dragon of Inflation, once awoken, is near impossible to tame.
It all begins with a country walking itself into a situation of severe fiscal mismanagement- this could be the Roman Empire of the early 300s, or the German Empire in 1916, or America in the 1980s- 2020s.
The State, fighting a war, promoting a welfare state, or combating an economic downturn, loads itself with debt burdens too heavy for it to bear.
This might even create temporary illusions of wealth and prosperity. The immediate results are not felt. But the trap is laid.
Over the next few years and even decades, the debt continues to grow. The government programs and spending set up during an emergency are almost impossible to shut down. Politicians are distracted with the issues of the day, and concerns about a borrowing binge take the backseat.
The debt loads begin to reach a critical mass, almost always just as a political upheaval unfolds. Murphy’s Law comes into effect.
Next comes a crisis.
This could be Visigoth tribesmen attacking the border posts in the North, making incursions into Roman lands. Or it could be the Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, kicking off a chain of events causing the onset of World War 1.
Or it could be a global pandemic, shutting down 30% of GDP overnight.
Politicians respond as they always had- mass government mobilization, both in the real and financial sense, to address the issue. Promising that their solutions will remedy the problem, a push begins for massive government spending to “solve” economic woes.
They go to fundraise debt to finance the Treasury. But this time is different.
Very few, if any, investors bid. Now they are faced with a difficult question- how to make up for the deficit between the Treasury’s income and its massive projected expenditure. Who’s going to buy the bonds?
With few or no legitimate buyers for their debt, they turn to their only other option- the printing press. Whatever the manner, new money is created and enters the supply.
This time is different. Due to the flood of new liquidity entering the system, widespread inflation occurs. Confounded, the politicians blame everyone and everything BUT the printing as the cause.
Bonds begin to sell off, which causes interest rates to rise. With rates suppressed so low for so long, trillions of dollars of leverage has built up in the system.
No one wants to hold fixed income instruments yielding 1% when inflation is soaring above 8%. It's a guaranteed losing trade. As more and more investors run for the exits in the bond markets, liquidity dries up and volatility spikes.
The MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility, begins climbing to levels not seen since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

MOVE Index
Sovereign bond market liquidity begins to evaporate. Weak links in the system, overleveraged several times on government debt, such as the UK’s pension funds, begin to implode.
The banks and Treasury itself will not survive true deflation- in the US, Yellen is already getting so antsy that she just asked major banks if Treasury should buy back their bonds to “ensure liquidity”!
As yields rise, government borrowing costs spike and their ability to roll their debt becomes extremely impaired. Overleveraged speculators in housing, equity and bond markets begin to liquidate positions and a full blown deleveraging event emerges.
True deflation in a macro environment as indebted as ours would mean rates soaring well above 15-20%, and a collapse in money market funds, equities, bonds, and worst of all, a certain Treasury default as federal tax receipts decline and deficits rise.
A run on the banks would ensue. Without the Fed printing, the major banks, (which have a 0% capital reserve requirement since 3/15/20), would quickly be drained. Insolvency is not the issue here- liquidity is; and without cash reserves a freezing of the interbank credit and repo markets would quickly ensue.
For those who don’t think this is possible, Tim Geitner, NY Fed President during the 2008 Crisis, stated that in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy, we were “We were a few days away from the ATMs not working” (start video at 46:07).
As inflation rips higher, the $24T Treasury market, and the $15.5T Corporate bond markets selloff hard. Soon they enter freefall as forced liquidations wipe leverage out of the system. Similar to 2008, credit markets begin to freeze up. Thousands of “zombie corporations”, firms held together only with razor thin margins and huge amounts of near zero yielding debt, begin to default. One study by a Deutsche analyst puts the figure at 25% of companies in the S&P 500.
The Central Banks respond to the crisis as they always have- coming to the rescue with the money printer, like the Bank of England did when they restarted QE, or how the Bank of Japan began “emergency bond buying operations”.
But this time is massive. They have to print more than ever before as the ENTIRE DEBT BASED FINANCIAL SYSTEM UNWINDS.
QE Infinity begins. Trillions of Treasuries, MBS, Corporate bonds, and Bond ETFs are bought up. The only manner in which to prevent the bubble from imploding is by overwhelming the system with freshly printed cash. Everything is no-limit bid.
The tsunami of new money floods into the system and a face ripping rally begins in every major asset class. This is the beginning of the melt-up phase.
The Federal Reserve, within a few months, goes from owning 30% of the Treasury market, to 70% or more. The Bank of Japan is already at 70% ownership of certain JGB issuances, and some bonds haven’t traded for a record number of days in an active market!
The Central Banks EAT the bond market. The “Lender of Last Resort” becomes “The Lender of Only Resort”.
Another step towards hyperinflation. The Dragon crawls out of his lair.

QE Process
Now the majority or even entirety of the new bond issuances from the Treasury are bought with printed money. Money supply must increase in tandem with federal deficits, fueling further inflation as more new money floods into the system.
The Fed’s liquidity hose is now directly plugged into the veins of the real economy. The heroin of free money now flows in ever increasing amounts towards Main Street.
The same face-ripping rise seen in equities in 2020 and 2021 is now mirrored in the markets for goods and services.
Prices for Food, gas, housing, computers, cars, healthcare, travel, and more explode higher. This sets off several feedback loops- the first of which is the wage-price spiral. As the prices of everything rise, real disposable income falls.
Massive strikes and turnover ensues. Workers refuse to labor for wages that are not keeping up with their expenses. After much consternation, firms are forced to raise wages or see large scale work stoppages.

Wage-Price Spiral
These higher wages now mean the firm has higher costs, and thus must charge higher prices for goods. This repeats ad infinitum.
The next feedback loop is monetary velocity- the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy.
The faster the dollar turns over, the more items it can bid for- and thus the more prices rise. Money velocity increasing is a key feature of a currency beginning to inflate away. In nations experiencing hyperinflation like Venezuela, where money velocity was purported to be over 7,000 annually- or more than 20 times a DAY.
As prices rise steadily, people begin to increase their inflation expectations, which leads to them going out and preemptively buying before the goods become even more expensive. This leads to hoarding and shortages as select items get bought out quickly, and whatever is left is marked up even more. ANOTHER feedback loop.
Inflation now soars to 25%. Treasury deficits increase further as the government is forced to spend more to hire and retain workers, and government subsidies are demanded by every corner of the populace as a way to alleviate the price pressures.
The government budget increases. Any hope of worker’s pensions or banks buying the new debt is dashed as the interest rates remain well below the rate of inflation, and real wages continue to fall. They thus must borrow more as the entire system unwinds.
The Hyperinflationary Feedback loop kicks in, with exponentially increasing borrowing from the Treasury matched by new money supply as the Printer whirrs away.
The Dragon begins his fiery assault.

Hyperinflationary Feedback Loop
As the dollar devalues, other central banks continue printing furiously. This phenomenon of being trapped in a debt spiral is not unique to the United States- virtually every major economy is drowning under excessive credit loads, as the average G7 debt load is 135% of GDP.
As the central banks print at different speeds, massive dislocations begin to occur in currency markets. Nations who print faster and with greater debt monetization fall faster than others, but all fiats fall together in unison in real terms.
Global trade becomes extremely difficult. Trade invoices, which usually can take several weeks or even months to settle as the item is shipped across the world, go haywire as currencies move 20% or more against each other in short timeframes. Hedging becomes extremely difficult, as vol premiums rise and illiquidity is widespread.
Amidst the chaos, a group of nations comes together to decide to use a new monetary media- this could be the Special Drawing Right (SDR), a neutral global reserve currency created by the IMF.
It could be a new commodity based money, similar to the old US Dollar pegged to Gold.
Or it could be a peer-to-peer decentralized cryptocurrency with a hard supply limit and secure payment channels.
Whatever the case- it doesn't really matter. The dollar will begin to lose dominance as the World Reserve Currency as the new one arises.
As the old system begins to die, ironically the dollar soars higher on foreign exchange- as there is a $20T global short position on the USD, in the form of leveraged loans, sovereign debt, corporate bonds, and interbank repo agreements.
All this dollar debt creates dollar DEMAND, and if the US is not printing fast enough or importing enough to push dollars out to satisfy demand, banks and institutions will rush to the Forex market to dump their local currency in exchange for dollars.
This drives DXY up even higher, and then forces more firms to dump local currency to cover dollar debt as the debt becomes more expensive, in a vicious feedback loop. This is called the Dollar Milkshake Theory, posited by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital.
The global Eurodollar Market IS leverage- and as all leverage works, it must be fed with new dollars or risk bankrupting those who owe the debt. The fundamental issue is that this time, it is not banks, hedge funds, or even insurance giants- this is entire countries like Argentina, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

The Dollar Milkshake
If the Fed does not print to satisfy the demand needed for this Eurodollar market, the Dollar Milkshake will suck almost all global liquidity and capital into the United States, which is a net importer and has largely lost it’s manufacturing base- meanwhile dozens of developing countries and manufacturing firms will go bankrupt and be liquidated, causing a collapse in global supply chains not seen since the Second World War.
This would force inflation to rip above 50% as supply of goods collapses.
Worse yet, what will the Fed do? ALL their choices now make the situation worse.

The Fed's Triple Dilemma
Many pundits will retort- “Even if we have to print the entire unfunded liability of the US, $160T, that’s 8 times current M2 Money Supply. So we’d see 700% inflation over two years and then it would be over!”
This is a grave misunderstanding of the problem; as the Fed expands money supply and finances Treasury spending, inflation rips higher, forcing the AMOUNT THE TREASURY BORROWS, AND THUS THE AMOUNT THE FED PRINTS in the next fiscal quarter to INCREASE. Thus a 100% increase in money supply can cause a 150% increase in inflation, and on again, and again, ad infinitum.
M2 Money Supply increased 41% since March 5th, 2020 and we saw an 18% realized increase in inflation (not CPI, which is manipulated) and a 58% increase in SPY (at the top). This was with the majority of printed money really going into the financial markets, and only stimulus checks and transfer payments flowing into the real economy.
Now Federal Deficits are increasing, and in the next easing cycle, the Fed will be buying the majority of Treasury bonds.
The next $10T they print, therefore, could cause additional inflation requiring another $15T of printing. This could cause another $25T in money printing; this cycle continues forever, like Weimar Germany discovered.
The $200T or so they need to print can easily multiply into the quadrillions by the time we get there.
The Inflation Dragon consumes all in his path.
Federal Net Outlays are currently around 30% of GDP. Of course, the government has tax receipts that it could use to pay for services, but as prices roar higher, the real value of government tax revenue falls. At the end of the Weimar hyperinflation, tax receipts represented less than 1% of all government spending.
This means that without Treasury spending, literally a third of all economic output would cease.
The holders of dollar debt begin dumping them en masse for assets with real world utility and value- even simple things such as food and gas.
People will be forced to ask themselves- what matters more; the amount of Apple shares they hold or their ability to buy food next month? The option will be clear- and as they sell, massive flows of money will move out of the financial economy and into the real.
This begins the final cascade of money into the marketplace which causes the prices of everything to soar higher. The demand for money grows even larger as prices spike, which causes more Treasury spending, which must be financed by new borrowing, which is printed by the Fed. The final doom loop begins, and money supply explodes exponentially.

German Hyperinflation
Monetary velocity rips higher and eventually pushes inflation into the thousands of percent. Goods begin being re-priced by the day, and then by the hour, as the value of the currency becomes meaningless.
A new money, most likely a cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin, gains widespread adoption- becoming the preferred method and eventually the default payment mechanism. The State continues attempting to force the citizens to use their currency- but by now all trust in the money has broken down. The only thing that works is force, but even the police, military and legal system by now have completely lost confidence.
The Simulacrum breaks down as the masses begin to realize that the entire financial system, and the very currency that underpins it is a lie- an illusion, propped up via complex derivatives, unsustainable debt loads, and easy money financed by the Central Banks.
Similar to Weimar Germany, confidence in the currency finally collapses as the public awakens to a long forgotten truth-
There is no supply cap on fiat currency.
Conclusion:

QE Infinity

When asked in 1982 what was the one word that could be used to define the Dollar, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker responded with one word-
“Confidence.”
All fiat money systems, unmoored from the tethers of hard money, are now adrift in a sea of illusion, of make-believe. The only fundamental props to support it are the trust and network effects of the participants.
These are powerful forces, no doubt- and have made it so no fiat currency dies without severe pain inflicted on the masses, most of which are uneducated about the true nature of economics and money.
But the Ships of State have wandered into a maelstrom from which there is no return. Currently, total worldwide debt stands at a gargantuan $300 Trillion, equivalent to 356% of global GDP.
This means that even at low interest rates, interest expense will be higher than GDP- we can never grow our way out of this trap, as many economists hope.
Fiat systems demand ever increasing debt, and ever increasing money printing, until the illusion breaks and the flood of liquidity is finally released into the real economy. Financial and Real economies merge in one final crescendo that dooms the currency to die, as all fiats must.
Day by day, hour by hour, the interest accrues.
The Debt grows larger.
And the Dollar Endgame Approaches.

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Today marks 30 years since, just before dawn on a cold South Dakota morning, Arnold Archambeau and Ruby Bruguier abandoned their car right after it flipped over following an accident outside Lake Andes, leaving her cousin Tracy Dion trapped inside. They were not seen again until their bodies were found near the accident site almost three months later.
The unresolved mystery here is, of course, not their disappearance—we know without a doubt they died. Nor is it the cause of death; the autopsies determined it was likely hypothermia. It is, instead, the manner: Just how did they come to die that way?
On the surface it seems like an easy call: they froze to death after the accident and the bodies were revealed by the spring thaw. Duh. But the reason an Unsolved Mysteries segment was done as well as an FBI investigation in the years afterwards is because it isn't that simple. Between the condition of the bodies and witness testimony both from searchers and visitors as well as several people who saw both of them alive long after their disappearance, there is a reasonably strong possibility their bodies were moved from somewhere else to be found there.
A year or so ago on this sub someone asked one of those open-ended questions about cases where it's likely the disappeared or dead person(s) was/ere alive for some time after last being seen (alive). Judy Smith got mentioned a lot, as did Ashley Bible and Lauria Freeman now that we know what happened (and had someone mentioned Robert Hoagland then, they might have been dismissed but now we know differently). In a comment of my own, I mentioned Romona Moore (about whom this is now known), Rico Harris (probably went back to where his car had been found parked nine days later) and Stephen Koecher (probably at least survived to the end of the day based on phone pings).
And Archambeau and Bruguier, who as I noted used to be discussed here more frequently. Another user, u/rubyshimmer, expressed the common theory of the case as summarized above. In a further comment, I wrote of my disgust at not this theory of the case so much as the way it was expressed by participants in earlier threads here, around the mid-2010s or so (so disgusted am I still that I will not link to those threads from here; you can look yourself) as sneering and dismissive of the local police and their investigation, based apparently just on everything they saw on the Unsolved Mysteries segment.
I mentioned having come across an interview with the local sheriff upon his 2011 retirement that starts off with him discussing the case, and mentioning that he was still firmly convinced 20 years later that their bodies hadn't been where they were later discovered the whole time. His main point in favor of that wasn't just the searching his department had done, along with the families: An area man looking for a lost hubcap during warm weather in late January that had melted the snow away had gone right through the same area where the bodies were found and not seen them.
I said I should probably do a post on it. Rubyshimmer agreed. And it occurred to me a while back that with the 30th anniversary coming up this year, that would be a great time. The recent surge of posts about cases involving overlooked missing or murdered Native/First Nations women for Native American Heritage Month also makes it topical
Instead of just recapping the case and what we know about it, however, I decided to do a deep dive. Obviously no one sitting behind a keyboard on the Internet can go and (re)interview witnesses or do new lab tests ... but we can look at weather records from that time in that area of South Dakota, and get a general idea of where the accident site was and look at it as it is now (and probably then) on Google Street View, as well as maps of the area.
And based on that deep dive I am now very much convinced that Archambeau and Bruguier died sometime well after their accident, somewhere other than the site of that accident. Which makes the question how they died, even if it was exposure. And one we should not dismiss as "stupid hayseed cops".
Background
There is now a Wikipedia article about the case, (whose sources, primarily local newspapers from that area of SD, I am thankful for and relying on) but I'll briefly reiterate here.
Arnold Archambeau, 20 at the time of his death, and Ruby Bruguier, 18, were both Yankton Sioux who had been born and raised on the tribe's reservation in southeastern South Dakota, where it occupies the southeastern half of Charles Mix County (named for the federal official who negotiated the 1858 peace treaty with the Yankton (YST). They had started dating in high school, and as often happens started a family in the process, with Bruguier giving birth to their daughter at 17. The little girl was almost 2 when her parents were found dead.
They however do not seem to have been bad parents, at least not for their age, stereotypes and realities about Native Americans on reservations like Yankton, where a large percentage of younger adults live below the poverty line, notwithstanding. Archambeau, largely raised by his grandmother since his own mother's death at 13, was a starter on his high school basketball team and worked at the tribe's Fort Randall Casino, where he does not seem to have fallen short of expectations, and neither of them were found to have any potentially criminal acquaintances or involvement.
The accident and disappearance
So, on the night of December 11, 1992, when they dropped their daughter off with one of Bruguier's uncles and in return took Ruby's cousin Tracy Dion out for a night on the town, such as it could be said to be, it probably seemed to be a well-deserved break for parents of a toddler themselves in, or barely out of, their teens. It's not recounted in any great detail what, exactly, they did that night, where they went or who they visited, and really it's not important—I think anyone's recollections of Friday night at that time of one's life will provide sufficient fodder for the imagination that is probably close to what actually happened. What is important in this telling is that they came back to Bruguier's uncle/Dion's father's house at 6 a.m. or so, intending to pick up their daughter and go home, somewhat drunk.
Dion's father was concerned about this, and suggested that they wait till they had sobered up and come back in the afternoon. They agreed, and drove off, with what immediate intention we do not know. Shortly afterwards, they came to a three-way intersection where Archambeau stopped at a sign. When he turned left, the car hit a patch of black ice and overturned.
The next thing Dion remembers, Archambeau was nowhere to be found, and Bruguier, after repeating "Oh my God! Oh my God!", crawled out of the wreckage without even acknowledging her cousin, much less asking if she was alright, then shutting the door behind her, leaving Dion trapped in the car until she was later rescued. She is the last person who is universally accepted as having seen the couple alive.
Charles Mix County Deputy Sheriff Bill Youngstrom was among the first responders to the accident. He oversaw a search of the area that found no bodies nor other sign of the two, even out on the nearby 5,000-acre frozen Lake Andes (which lends its name to the county seat a mile away). At first he figured Archambeau was trying to avoid a DWI charge and thus would reappear in a day or two. But neither his family nor Bruguier's reported their return, nor ever seeing them again.
The discovery of the bodies
In early March 1993, CMCSD and federal Bureau of Indian Affairs Police (not only were Archambeau and Bruguier Sioux but the accident had happened within reservation boundaries) went public about the couple still being missing. Within a week, someone noticed a body floating in melted snow between the road and a paralleling abandoned railbed at the site where the accident had happened in December. It was heavily decomposed and identified as Bruguier through a tattoo on her ankle. Police had the four feet of water pumped out and, the next day, found Archambeau's body underneath the water about 15 feet away. He was in much better condition and could still be identified visually.
The bodies were shipped to Sioux Falls, a hundred miles away, where the Minnehaha county coroner had the lab to do proper autopsies. He found the deaths to have been caused by hypothermia, but could not say when they had occurred.
Youngstrom, who had been among the first responders and was surprised to find the bodies there as he himself had also searched the area several times since December, took note of several anomalies contradicting the possibility that the bodies had been there the whole time and were just, somehow, missed (about which more later):

The disparity between the states of decomposition of the two bodies,
Bruguier was wearing the clothes she had had on the morning of the accident, but was missing her glasses and shoes (the latter something it's unlikely she would have been going without at the time).
A tuft of dark hair found at the roadside near the bodies was identified (by early 1990s, pre-DNA methods, to be fair) as Bruguier's. It was in much better condition than it could have been expected to have been if it had been there the whole three months, through the middle of an upper Plains winter (about which, again, more later)
The police were never sure whether the clothes Archambeau was found in were those he was wearing at the time of the accident. But in his pockets they found a set of three keys, two apparently to a structural door and one for a car, that did not match any vehicle or secured space he was known to frequent or reasonably have the possibility of doing so. By 1995 Youngstrom, who carried them everywhere, had been unable to match them to any lock he encountered.

Further investigation
Since without being sure where the bodies had been they could not say for certain whether the exposure had been accidental, the case remained open. The CMCSD and BIAP investigated and found witnesses who had seen one or other sometime after Dec. 12. One, a young woman who had known Archambeau before, reported seeing him in a car near a New Year's Eve party and talking with him. She also saw three people in the car with him and identified them as well; she passed a lie-detector test (and yes, more discussion of this below) while those she identified either would not talk to the police or failed a lie-detector test. Another said they saw Bruguier around Jan. 20. Youngstrom went down to Nebraska to talk to some former residents of the Andes Lake area who had relocated there.
Two other witness reports also stuck out. One was from someone who'd been on the same road, heading toward Lake Andes, that morning shortly after the accident—and saw, down the road from it, a young man and woman getting into another vehicle, headed away from the town. Another witness also reported seeing a "Blazer-type" vehicle with two men standing outside it at the accident site on the morning of March 10, 1993, hours before Bruguier's body was found.
Lab reports and photos from the autopsies (though not the bodies themselves) were sent to a lab in New Mexico, which said that while hypothermia was a possible cause of death it might not be the only one. It also supposedly developed some other evidence that might be useful which police have never elaborated on.
One of Bruguier's cousins suggested the case to Unsolved Mysteries, which came out to the area and shot re-enactments in February 1995. When the segment aired a couple of months later, it generated a new set of leads, mostly from South Dakota but some from neighboring states. Some seemed promising but nothing is known about how far they were pursued.
That might be because later that year, an injunction was issued in a lawsuit the tribe brought against the state challenging a landfill permit on the grounds that it was within the original boundaries of the reservation, which the tribe said Congress had never altered, and thus came under tighter federal standards. It went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which unanimously resolved it in the state's favor in 1998. Because of the injunction against state or local authority over tribal members within the dispute area, the case had had to be transferred to federal authorities, which meant the BIAP turned it over to the FBI.
In 1999 that agency closed the case, saying it found insufficient evidence that a crime had been committed. What that means, exactly, they as usual did not expand on. Did they suspect something? Or did they find it generally inconclusive ... is this a way of saying "we can't say what happened one way or the other?"
And it does not look like there has been any serious investigation, or push for one, since. Though for the CMCSD at least, the mystery remains. Bill Youngstrom never seems to have wavered from his original assessment that the bodies were moved from somewhere else. His boss, Sheriff Ray Westendorf, also stated upon his 2011 retirement that he believed the bodies had not been present at the site the whole time and called the case the most puzzling of his career in the office.
So ... where does that leave us?
As I have noted, the prevailing consensus online (not just here) seems to be that the bodies were there the whole time and were simply not discovered due to a cursory search by police at the time of the accident. While some of what I recounted above gives this the lie (family members also searched, and the police went through the area with them several times), it struck me that, for this to be reasonably true, two other assumptions would have to be made:

The snow was deep enough to completely cover bodies at the time of the accident
It remained that deep through March, through a combination of regularly renewed snow cover and continued temperatures well below freezing.

By themselves I have a bit of a problem with these assumptions ... wouldn't two people stumbling away from a car accident to where the bodies would later be found within a hundred feet of the accident when the snow melts three months later leave tracks in the snow that should have been easily spotted at the scene at the time (you know, just like a certain car accident in New Hampshire we always keep discussing where the resolution of the case is always by some blithely asserted to be that the missing person just ran so far away into deep snow in the nearby woods before collapsing that their body will never be found)? But I digress.
More to the point, it seems to me that if you're going to confidently call the case solved on the basis of the winter weather in the area in question, maybe you should at least be able to point to historical weather records that would back up your assertions? I mean, it's out there on the Internet for anybody to look at.
The Accident Site
But before we go into that, we should take a look at the location where the accident happened and the bodies of Archambeau and Bruguier were discovered. Wikipedia has it here, which fits with the descriptions in the article and news accounts: a three-way intersection along US 281 (also, at that point, concurrent with US 18 and SD Route 50) roughly a mile east of Lake Andes, with an abandoned railbed running in close parallel with the road. Also, there seems to be a tribal housing area a short distance down the intersecting road to the south, which also jibes with Dion's account that the trio had just left her father's house to go sober up a bit more before picking up Archambeau and Bruguier's daughter.
Some accounts of the accident suggest it took place on some low-traffic back road in the area. But it seems that now, and I can guess probably in 1992 as well, that US 281 is the main road of that part of Charles Mix County (it's a north-south route from near the Mexican border in Brownsville, Texas, to the International Garden of Peace on the Canadian border straddling Manitoba and North Dakota, but at this point it runs east-west for a few miles in order to get around the 5,000-acre lake that lends its name to the nearby town). All traffic to Lake Andes, a small town but still of some importance as the county seat, would probably use it along with any through traffic, of which there is probably quite a bit as it's at least 50 miles to the nearest interstate highway. So there's going to be a lot of traffic (for deep rural South Dakota, anyway) every day, no matter what time of year, passing through this spot.
Now we can take a look in Street View at the accident site. That picture was taken in the summertime and dates to 2009. I wish the image quality were better, but it's enough to show that the railbed is indeed quite close to the road—about 75 feet, easily visible from the road throughout this section following the southern shore of the lake. And if anyone's going to offer that maybe Archambeau and Bruguier got run over by a train, well, a) the autopsies don't show any physical injury like that and b) more importantly, the Milwaukee Road abandoned the line when it went into bankruptcy in 1980, so no trains had run over those tracks in 12 years.
In the Street View image, you can see, through the slightly higher vegetation midway between the road and railbed, the "drainage ditch" referred to in most accounts of the case as where the bodies were found (and, by implication, probably because Unsolved Mysteries shows it happening that way, where the car ended up after the accident). This is a misnomer. It does not look at all like a purpose-built structure for carrying away excess water, more rather like the inevitable depression that will result when a railroad and a state highway department make the prudent decision to build their respective modes of transport on upgraded berms when they run parallel to each other immediately adjacent to a large lake known to flood. Indeed, Youngstrom noted that the water in the depression the days the bodies were found was completely stagnant (and if it were a drainage ditch and had the four feet of water Archambeau was found under, someone was not doing their job either in design or maintenance). It also seems from looking at the portions of the depression where any other roads or paths cross it at grade level do not have any culverts.
But for ease of reading, I will just call it in the rest of this post the ditch.
And speaking of Unsolved Mysteries, I must admit I find their recreation of the accident unrealistic. They show the car going into the ditch at speed, flipping over and then skidding down the ice on the ditch for maybe a hundred feet or so, (with no apparent effects on the ice!). It seems more like they were going for "because it looks cool" in the promo for the segment, and to give the stunt driver something for his sizzle reel.
In reality, according to Dion, Archambeau had just, after coming to a complete stop at the sign, made a left turn from the intersecting road across the highway, so he couldn't have been going so fast as to make the car do that action-movie skid. Even if he had floored it. And even if he had, I'd like to know whether the road had that same shoulder on its north side than as it does now, because if so it seems entirely possible for the car to have come to rest still on the road after the accident—indeed, the description of the bodies as having been found 75 feet from the site suggests something like that. (And if it had flipped into the ditch, isn't there a chance of another revolution or so on the way down so that it might come to rest upwards?)
Lastly there is also the issue of the ice cover, if any, in the ditch at the time of the accident, and later, which of course finally brings us to the weather.
The Winter of 1992–93 in Lake Andes and vicinity.
The first thing to clarify here before we get into actual weather data is that the crash happened shortly before dawn, which takes place at 7:56 a.m. CST at this time of year in Lake Andes. Twilight began at around 6:13 a.m., before any account says the crash happened; if it happened just after 7 a.m. it was already well into nautical twilight. I bring this up because one explanation that I've seen online for why the police supposedly failed to discover the bodies is that the crash happened at night, so it was dark.
Leaving aside the fact that most police and firefighters have, or have access to, pretty good quality flashlights that they are not at all hesitant to use (sometimes for purposes other than those intended by the manufacturer or issuing agency, as Arthur McDuffie could have attested), this explanation is completely wrong, since it was already bright outside and getting brighter every minute. Indeed, at daybreak (I assume the sun didn't actually light the scene until closer to 8:30 a.m. given the topography of even this part of the Plains and the elevation), according to the Unsolved Mysteries segment, Youngstrom told his deputies at the scene to search the area aside Route 281 in both directions for some distance from the accident. They reported back that they found nothing.
We can also assume that if they searched the area in daylight, that any tracks in the snow would have been evident and noted. I assume there were none, since Youngstrom adds that he even had someone check out the area to the north, towards the lakeshore, in case they had disorientedly wandered that way and fallen in. If there had been tracks, he would not have found it necessary to tell someone to look up that way.
Of course, that brings up the question: was there even enough snow to leave tracks in, if any? And for that we will finally turn to weather records.
Finding these for Lake Andes is difficult. As a small town there are, it seems, few complete and reliable records of weather there. The nearest we can get for that is the airport in Mitchell, roughly 50 miles to the north. I am going to assume that the flat, generally open Plains landscape in the area means that conditions in Lake Andes will/would not be appreciably different.
The Farmers' Almanac website also keeps its own extensive records, derived from the National Climatic Data Center, not complete but generally comporting with official records for the same time and place (Indeed, on this sub I have used them to establish conditions at the time of Maura Murray's aforementioned car accident and in the days following). For Lake Andes they seem to sometimes pull data from Mitchell or Pickstown, to the south, along the Missouri River, a little closer by. More importantly, they are the only data for the area I could find that has records for individual days.
And that data for December 12, 1992, shows that contrary to how it is sometimes represented as bitterly cold at the time of the accident (I guess because it's South Dakota, and that's all anyone thinks they need to know), it was actually probably just below freezing (the day never got colder than 26ºF), and indeed as the day went on it warmed up to well over freezing, to 48ºF. So if there's snow it's not going to last unless there's a lot of it.
Was there? I wish that record included snow depth on the ground . Could there have been? We can look at the days immediately preceding: It was a little colder the day before (but no precipitation recorded, and still well above freezing in the middle of the day) The day before that was much the same, while the 9th is finally cold enough for most snow and ice not in the sun to remain through the day. The 8th is colder still, but no precipitation was recorded. Likewise the 7th.
A week before the accident, it hit the single digits at night but got to 37ºF during the day. Still no reported precipitation. Skipping back to the middle of that week, that cold snap seems to have been continuing but it does not look like there had been any snow. Two weeks before the accident, no snow had been reported.
To take a broader look at this data and avoid having to go to separate pages for each day (although going back in November I don't find any more evidence that it rained or snowed significantly, we can look at month/season level data from the Mitchell airport at weatherspark (The O'Neill, NE, airport is actually a little closer to the south, but there is no data from it for the early 1990s at weatherspark). Unfortunately the weatherspark data seems like it fails to record the weather for each day, but for November we can see that while some nights late that month got quite cold, it had not been that way for a prolonged period.
Taken together with Deputy Youngstrom's decisions on how to search the area that morning, I believe we can safely say that there was no snow cover in which tracks could have been left, much less bodies concealed. If there had been tracks, even in the most minimal inch of wet snow, Youngstrom would not have needed to have someone go up to the lake edge and search.
For this reason I also further doubt the accident happened the way Unsolved Mysteries shows it. Assuming there had been any meltwater in the ditch, it doesn't strike me that temperatures had been cold enough for long enough to form any ice, much less ice cover on such shallow water strong enough to totally withstand the force of a car rolling over on top of it. And if there had been water in the ditch deep enough, I think Tracy Dion might have remembered it as she'd have possibly been in more danger. She says nothing about any ice.
The next period relevant to our inquiry is late January. That was when, according to Westendorf, temperatures thawed out so much that a man took to his horse (OK, I guess, there are some possible South Dakota stereotypes that we'll admit) to search much of the ditch in that area for a hubcap he had lost. Westendorf recalls that day as warm enough that there was no snow and almost no water in the ditch.
The rider told police (at some time after the bodies were discovered; he also filed an affidavit with this story) about his search and that he saw no bodies, not even where they were later discovered. Westendorf, in his 2011 Republican interview, seems to suggest that he was there for a while and that he, too, saw no bodies. Youngstrom mentions this as well in several of the stories about the case.
Does this account jibe with the weather records? Yes.
January in that corner of South Dakota seems to have mostly fit the perception of icebox Plains winters behind this interpretation where the bodies were always there: the first couple of weeks of 1993 were indeed severely cold, with the mercury rarely going above freezing and dropping below 0ºF on quite a few nights.January 10 in particular seems to be a day you would have wanted to stay inside, with 11ºF being the high temperature and the overnight low going down to -9. Note also that here some snow depth, about 3 inches, is recorded.
But ... at the end of the month the weather spiked up. On the 30th, with 2 inches of snow still on the ground, the temperature went up to almost 50. The next day, temperatures stayed above freezing all day, and there is again "no data" for snow cover. It was a Sunday, so probably an ideal day for the rider to saddle up and look for his lost hubcap (something which, again, I'd find easier to do in the absence of snow).
These mild conditions persist, more or less, into the first week of February 1993, but then by the holiday weekends frigid weather is back as after the 9th temps don't climb above freezing for the rest of the month. The 23rd seems to have been the coldest day of that winter, with a high of 4ºF and a low of -14. Neither snow nor snow cover is recorded on that date (the former hardly surprising to anyone familiar with that kind of winter temperatures as most of the water vapor has already been condensed out and fallen on the ground).
But by the end of the month five days later, 11 inches of snow are recorded, slowly melting off over the next few days. The day the newspapers run the story about the police news conference, making the story public knowledge for the first time, temperatures have again climbed over freezing during the day. Over the next couple of days, they largely stay above freezing, likely resulting in the water accumulating in the ditch to a depth of four feet at the middle, not just from the snow in their but the plowage and runoff from Route 281.
On the day Bruguier's body is found by the road, it is ironically roughly the same, weatherwise, as the day she is last known to have been seen alive. It's only a little bit cooler the next day when the water is pumped out of the ditch and Archambeau's body is revealed. None of the accounts of the bodies' discovery mention any ice on the ditch at the time, and honestly I don't think it could have formed, at least not as some solid sheet.
So, in summary ... it seems from the records as if the sort of deep-freeze winter that would have to have happened to conceal the bodies and protect them from decay did not actually happen. There were ample opportunities for passersby to have seen the bodies, if they were there, in the interceding three months, and we know that in addition to searches undertaken by Youngstrom and the Archambeau and Bruguier families, there were others, such as the hubcap rider, that found nothing. Archambeau's body was not protected from the decay that affected Bruguier's by being in cold water the whole time since for much of that time there was no water to be in. In fact, given the likely amount of time the bodies would have been completely exposed and in temperatures well above freezing had they been in the ditch the whole time, one would expect the bodies to be both more and consistently decomposed.
I realize the many "no datas" on snow cover at the Farmers' Almanac pages may be a possible qualification to this. Well, I refer you also to the newspaper page from the Huron Plainsman with the article about Bruguier's body being discovered. At the top is the weather report, which also has some seasonal weather statistics (Huron is farther from Lake Andes than Mitchell, but again I'm going to assume some degree of uniformity). It reports a total winter snowfall by that point of about 30" (5" of total precipitation). Assuming one third of that can be accounted for by the end-of-February storm, and some of the rest by snow in early January that left 2-3" on the ground for a couple of weeks, that's not a lot of snow left over throughout the rest of the winter to bury any bodies that fell into it, if there was any at the time.
So, in summary, I believe there's more mystery here than has met the eye. A preponderance of the evidence suggests to me that Archambeau and Bruguier did not die in the immediate aftermath of their December 12, 1992, car accident, but some time later, perhaps a lot later, and their bodies were moved back to the accident site prior (perhaps just prior) to their discovery there on March 10-11, 1993. And while whether their deaths were adequately investigated by law enforcement can be debated, I don't think there should be any debate that they have been ill-served by the online true-crime community.
Thoughts, Theories and Takeaways

First and foremost, I would very much like to see the actual police reports. It seems to me that there are a lot of blanks they could fill in. I wouldn't be surprised if they're in the FBI's possession, and since the FBI has formally closed the case, it seems like there would be a lot of material responsive to a FOIA request. I am further surprised that no one's done this as far as I have been able to determine.
I also, I should say, blame part of the misperceptions on Unsolved Mysteries' necessarily superficial treatment of the case.
I do not consider the Minnehaha County Coroner's unwillingness to fix a time frame of death to be a failing of the investigation. Anyone familiar with Elisa Lam's case will remember the LA medical examiner likewise refused to do that there because of the lack of knowledge as to things like the air temperature, the water temperature and just how long she had been in the tank. Pathologists know that fixing a time of death due to hypothermia requires not just assuming but pretty much knowing how long the body was exposed to what temperature. There is just no way you can say that in this case, even assuming the bodies were in the ditch the whole time.
I find it possibly significant that the witness who saw the couple get into a vehicle on Route 281 shortly after the accident said the vehicle was heading east, away from Lake Andes and toward Wagner, the administrative center of the reservation. Yet Archambeau had turned toward Lake Andes before the accident. You'd think they wanted to go there, and might well have been trying to on foot, where it would have been easy to get help.
It strikes me going over all this that one thing everyone's assumed is that Dion is telling the truth, because there's no way to verify anything she said about the immediate aftermath of the accident. How do we know she is? I'd like to think she is, but if she isn't quite a few of the bets here are off.
As to the New Year's Eve witness passing a lie detector test: Yes, I know that most of us here are, like myself, to say the least, skeptical (more like dismissive) of polygraph results as meaning anything. And with good reason, because really their only effective use is getting people who aren't good liars to confess before they actually take the test. Still, though ... I'd like to know if the witness who passed the test was someone who'd never talked to police before, who did not have a history of being questioned as a suspect, who was generally perceived as truthful. A positive from someone who never would have expected they'd be taking a lie detector test and doesn't live the kind of life where lying about at least something becomes habitual might have more significance.
So what is my theory of what happened, if they didn't die right after the accident? Well, for them not only not to return home after the accident but not even, as far as we know, to have contacted friends and/or family, for Bruguier not to have returned to an infant daughter she was still breastfeeding, for Archambeau to have just apparently walked away from a reasonably good job, they must have had to believe that doing so would endanger those people. Perhaps the reason for them staying away was something that happened, or something they saw, after being picked up.
And if it was worth someone killing them to keep whatever it was quiet, that someone had to be aware of the accident and their disappearance to find a way to kill them through exposure so it would look like they had just wandered off into the snow and died.
Indeed, I find the most signficant fact in this whole case to be that the bodies were found within a week, right about where they had last been seen, of the March 4 news conference where the CMCSD and BIAP made the details of what was still a missing-persons case public, and every news outlet in that part of the state covered it. Meaning someone or someones who knew something or likely had access to the bodies was now on notice that law enforcement was aware the two had disappeared. Perhaps, too, someone outside the reservation or the immediate area, maybe not guilty or responsible the deaths but no less interested in talking with the police.
Or maybe they fell into some sort of dimensional rift or temporal anomaly, or something like that. It's not very plausible but it would explain a lot.

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