Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter. Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic! Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below. Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense. Part III
Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
Squeezes and other risks
We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.
Events
Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem. This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week. For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.
Squeezes
Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity. The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class. A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone. There's a reason for the car, don't worry Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price. If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point. To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price. Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble. Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it. The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard. Incredible event Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.” If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely. This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze. For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts. A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me: Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.
Asymmetric losses
Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy. Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite. A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012. The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’. They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally. Then this happened. Something that changed FX markets forever The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%. Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.
Market positioning
We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care? Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care. Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable. To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on. On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy. We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like. A carry trade position clear-out in action Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful. The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT"). This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market. Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy. You can find the data online for free and download it directly here. Raw format is kinda hard to work with However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”. But you can easily get visualisations You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful. Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information. As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning. For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back? A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity. For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?” In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit. If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.
Bet correlation
Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are. Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large. Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem. Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue. Chart from TradingView So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together. The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each. There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio. A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance. But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done? For example:
You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return. The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction. It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade. Flat is a position. Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it. Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month. Be strict with yourself and walk away Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first. Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period. Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture. Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal. When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.
That's a wrap on risk management
Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback. Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results. Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below. News Trading Part I
Introduction
Why use the economic calendar
Reading the economic calendar
Knowing what's priced in
Surveys
Interest rates
First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
Data surprise index
Using recent events to predict future reactions
Buy the rumour, sell the fact
The mysterious 'position trim' effect
Reversals
Some key FX releases
*** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
TODAY’S CANADIAN DOLLAR CAD STRENGTH AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS
Today in the main session forex trading the CAD was strong on all pairs in this currency group. This drove strong price movements during the main trading session. Images of the live forex trading signals from The Forex Heatmap® and price chart movement for these pairs is shown below. The CAD/CHF moved higher on the H1 time frame. This pair is range bound so we consider this to be a short term buy. Traders should exit any short term buys on this pair. These live currency trading signals and trend based trading plans for 28 pairs can be found on our website at Forexearlywarning.com. CLick on the link for more information:
Access Part I here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/h0iwbu/part_i_my_10_minuteday_trading_strategy/ Welcome to Part II of this ongoing series. How many parts will there be? No idea. At least 4-5, I guess. I'd rather have this broken down into digestible chunks than just fire hose you with information. Part I was really just a primer. If I'm using the whole baking a cake analogy, then in Part I we covered what kind of cake we're baking. I will not cover in this post where we look for entries and exits, that's coming next. Part II is going to cover what ingredients we need and why we need those ingredients in greater detail. What Kind Of Strategy Is This Again?It's my 10 minutes per day, trading strategy. I think the beauty of this strategy is that it allows you to take a good number of trader per week without having to commit an inordinate amount of time to the screens. This is both a mean reversion and trend-continuation based strategy. It is dead simple to learn and apply. I'd expect a 10 year old to be able to make money with this. The List Of Ingredients & Why We Use These Particular Ingredients *I will have an image at the end of the post showing a textbook long and short setup* Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands (BB) have a base line (standard is the 20SMA, which is also what we will use for this strategy) and two other trend lines (known as the upper Bollinger band [UBB] and lower Bollinger band [LBB]) plotted 2 standard deviations away from the 20SMA. The idea behind BB is deviously simple - the vast majority of price action, approx. 90%, takes place in between the two bands. In other words, when price trades off the UBB or LBB, you could consider prices to be overbought/oversold. However, just because something is OVERbought does NOT mean its run is OVER. Therefore we need additional tools to make sure we are using the BB as effectively as possible. TLDR: BBhelp contextualize where to look for our technical setups using this strategy. Finding the candle/bar pattern is not enough. We need to make sure the setup is in the 'right' part of the chart. We accomplish that using the BB. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator (Stochs) is a secondary momentum indicator. Because it is an oscillator that means the signals it generates are range-bound between 0 and 100. There are tons of momentum indicators out there. Theoretically you could swap out the Stochs for RSI or MACD. My hunch is that you won't see a measurable statistical difference in performance if you do. So why Stochs? Because I like the fact you have the %K and %D lines (you can think of them as moving averages) and the fact that the %K and %D lines crossover is a helpful visual aid. Like any other momentum indicator, the Stochs will generate overbought and oversold signals. We use the Stochs to help back up what the BB are telling us. If price is trading at, or even broken out of, the UBB and Stochs are also veeeery overbought that can be potentially useful information. It doesn't mean we have a trade necessarily, but it is a helpful piece of data. Fibonacci Retracement & Extension Tool: This tool is OPTIONAL. The only reason I use this tool for this strategy is to integrate a mechanistic means of entry and exit. In other words, we can use fibonacci levels to place limit orders for entry and profit taking, and a stop order to get us out for our pre-defined risk allocation to each particular trade. If you DON'T want to use the fibs, that is perfectly okay. It just means you will add a more discretionary layer to this strategy Candlestick/Bar Patterns: There isn't a whole lot to say here. We look for ONE formation over, and over, and over again. An indecision bar (small body, doesn't close on its highs or lows) followed by the setup bar which is an outside bar or an engulfing bar. It doesn't particularly matter if the setup bar is an engulfing bar or outside bar. What matters is that for a long trade the setup bar makes a HIGHER HIGH and has a HIGHER CLOSE relative to the indecision bar. The opposite for a short trade setup. The bar formation is what ultimately serves as the trigger for placing orders to take a trade. *MOVING ON* Now We Get Into The Setup Itself:There are 3 places where we look for trades using this strategy:
Short off the UBB (Here we want to see Stochastics overbought and crossing down. Bearish divergence is even better)
Long off the LBB (Here we want to see Stochastics oversold and crossing up. Bullish divergence is even better)
Long/Short off the Middle Bollinger Band (Here if you are looking for a short trade off the MBB you ideally want Stochs overbought. Vice versa for a long trade. NOTE: Often when taking trades off the MBB, Stochs WON'T go overbought/oversold. Because this doesn't happen often, I don't let it stop me from taking trades off the MBB.)
The actual setup is very simple and straightforward. We look for our candle/bar formation in conjunction with points 1 through 3 from the above. There will be other nuances I will cover in terms of how to make the strategy more effective in Part 3. For example, I will go into much more detail about how the shape of the BB can tell us a lot about whether a currency pair is likely to reverse or not. I will also cover how to gauge the strength of the setup candle and a few other tips and tricks. Technical Nuances: You can overlay a lot of other traditional technical analysis on top of the above. For example you can look for short trades off the UBB in conjunction with a prior broken support level that you now expect to be working overhead resistance. If you want to go further and deeper, of course you can. Note: the above is about as far as I went when overlaying other kinds of analysis onto this strategy. I like to keep it simple, stupid. TEXTBOOK LONG TRADE OFF LBB: https://preview.redd.it/e06otysgsh451.png?width=2820&format=png&auto=webp&s=101b3eed1b42512d639644bcc096d1026e558f17 TEXTBOOK SHORT TRADE OFF UBB: https://preview.redd.it/yfg02yjhsh451.png?width=2820&format=png&auto=webp&s=18b427995f3dcecb22e1ae7f15cd5b3cd53c18e4 TRADE OFF MBB: https://preview.redd.it/8kvzknaish451.png?width=2820&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f1e6113475193e8b812bface880a77e82ad7eeb And that's a wrap for Part II.
Elliott Waves Series Part 2 - The Broad ConceptYou can find Part 1 here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/hieuyw/introduction_to_elliott_wave_theory_overview_of/ The primary value that the Wave Principle (from here on out, abbreviated to WP) confers on market analysts is the ability to provide context for market behaviour. Having context is incredibly important. To put it simply, the WP can be thought of as a compass. Whenever you feel lost looking at a chart (ANY chart, ANY market!), the WP will help get you back on track. Clearing Up Some Misconceptions About Elliott Wave Theory:
R.N. Elliott first discovered the WP in the 1930s using charts of the stock market. Many misinformed people believe that the WP works “best” on stocks and has been adapted for use in other markets. This is simply false. To be clear - Elliott discovered the WP. He did not invent the WP. The WP is based on human social nature and therefore it cannot be invented. It has always existed. What Elliott did was to start codifying rules and guidelines around how human social nature can be charted. Ultimately, Elliott’s objective was to be able to predict future human behaviour using the historical record. The expression of human social nature generates forms and patterns. As these forms and patterns repetitive, they have enormous predictive value.
Another major misconception around the WP is that it requires a lot of discretionary analysis, and more often than not, analysts shoehorn price action to fit the Elliott Wave model. In fact, the WP has very clear rules (these rules are inviolate under any circumstance) and guidelines (these guidelines should be adhered to almost 100% of the time). While there is a discretionary element involved in counting waves, properly trained wave analysts will ultimately arrive at a consensus because following the rules and guidelines narrows the possible wave counts very quickly. Very often Wave analysts will have 2 counts at hand in terms of where they think the market is presently situated. These counts are known as the preferred count and the alternative count. These counts are validated and invalidated using price levels derived from Elliott’s rules and guidelines. The most dissent I expect from two educated Wave analysts is that one analyst’s preferred count could be the other’s alternative count. This dissent quickly resolves itself as the price action develops and validates or invalidates one count or the other. This dissent usually occurs based on wave patterns of one higher degree. It is very rare that I have seen dissent on immediate market movements.
I didn’t know this was a major misconception, but someone brought this up in my first post, “I stated that Elliott Theory has better success when working in consolidations or extreme ranging markets.” This is completely false. The WP doesn’t work better or worse regardless of the market or the market conditions. That would be like saying that breathing air only works occasionally. The WP is NOT a strategy, it is the definitive model for charting human herding behaviour. Human behaviour does not show up only in periods of consolidation or range-bound markets. The markets are themselves driven by human behaviour, therefore the WP is always equally applicable. From a trading perspective, the WP is perfectly suited to capturing trends.
Well, what about news events? What about supply and demand theory? What about fundamentals?! Doesn’t any of this stuff matter?? In short, the answer is no. I have previously stated that I am a macro-based investor. This is certainly true. Much of the research I consume has to do with market fundamentals and global-macro analysis. This research helps me form a view that I can overlay with the WP. From a trading perspective, when it comes to actually pulling triggers and taking positions, my decisions are always guided first and foremost by the WP. Here is a fantastic quotation from Bob Prechter on this topic, “Sometimes the market appears to reflect outside conditions and events, but at other times it is entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions. The reason is that the market has a law of its own. It is not propelled by the external causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life. The path of prices is not a product of news. Nor is the market the cyclically rhythmic machine that some declare it to be. Its movement reflects a repetition of forms that is independent both of presumed causal events and of periodicity.”
The Bottom Line: Elliott Wave Theory is the best forecasting tool in existence. It has determined that the market’s progression unfolds in waves. Waves can be thought of as patterns that carry the market in a direction. There are a fixed number of the different kinds of patterns these waves can take. If you really boil this down to its essence, successfully applying the WP is as simple as identifying what kind of wave the market is currently in. I will end this now. The next part will deal with the overriding wave structure that the market is in, the different kinds of waves we will see, and why this wave structure exists in the first place.
Hi all, I'm new here and new to forex. I have a small amount of experience trading stocks and options but just think it's too volatile at the moment so want to transition to a casino where the deck isn't ENTIRELY stacked against me :P I've just started babypips and tracking some currency pairs looking for what I think my entries would be. A couple of noob questions: 1) USD/HKD So this pair is pegged between 7.75 - 7.85 If this pair is trading at the extreme end of the range isn't this a pretty one-sided trade? Obviously there is the risk that the peg could break or be changed etc but how likely is that? Is it possible to watch pairs like this trading, wait to see some upward movement + increased volume and enter? Losses would be limited to the lower bound with solid upside? This seems like something every noob would think of so what am I missing? https://preview.redd.it/d8pc5kvwbj751.png?width=1505&format=png&auto=webp&s=59422ca9b4ab8d21c5eea636618ef64b8b3a83f9 2) Margin of Safety in a Forex Strategy If I'm testing a strategy what % margin of safety should I try to build in before thinking the strategy might be worthwhile? Let's say I have 2:1 risk:reward and expect to be right 50% of the time, this is probably not good enough, but what about if I was right 51% of the time? 55%? 60%? etc I guess the question is, what percentage of statistical edge should I be looking to build?
I've only recently learned about algobots and more specifically ones that do Grid Trading, while I get that its an insanely risky way to play, Im still curious about it, I assume it works best in range bound markets right? therefore are there any instruments, forex or otherwise that would do really well in Grid Trading? ie, no colossal shifts in price? Thank you in advance!
What factors predict the success of a Steam game? (An analysis)
What factors predict the success of a Steam game?
I've seen quite a few discussions, comments and questions on /gamedev about what determines a game's success. How much does quality matter? Is establishing market awareness before launch the only thing that matters? Does a demo help or hurt? If your game has a poor launch, how likely is it to recover? Is it possible to roughly predict the sales of a game before launch? In preparation for my game's launch, I spent a lot of time monitoring upcoming releases trying to find the answer to these questions. I compiled a spreadsheet, noted followers, whether it was Early Access or not, and saw how many reviews it received in the first week, month and quarter. I'm sharing this data now in the hopes that it helps other developers understand and predict their games' sales. First some notes on the data:
One of the important sources of data are the number Steam reviews. There is good evidence that these correlate strongly with copies sold, with frequently cited ratios of 50 sales per Steam review, but there's a wide range. It seems likely that the majority of Steam games fall between 25 and 120 sales per Steam review, but there are outliers. Also, games with a very small number of reviews are much more likely to be outliers in this respect. My own game is the only game I have hard sales numbers for. You can read my lengthy Reddit post on its release, but the relevant numbers are that it sold 1587 copies in the first week and 3580 copies in its first quarter.
The total number of games in the sample was 115.
I selected games semi-randomly from from both Popular Upcoming and All Upcoming. This favors the popular upcoming tab somewhat and this was deliberate: I wanted a diverse sample but also one not completely dominated with titles that sold zero copies.
Games are ordered by their release date which range from 10/26/18 to 12/20/18.
Game
Price
Launch Discount
Week Guess
Week actual
3 Month
3 Month/week
Followers
Early Access
Demo
Review Score
Pit of Doom
9.99
0
7
27
43
1.592592593
295
Y
N
0.8
Citrouille
9.99
0.2
16
8
12
1.5
226
N
N
Corspe Party: Book
14.99
0.1
32
40
79
1.975
1015
N
N
0.95
Call of Cthulhu
44.99
0
800
875
1595
1.822857143
26600
N
N
0.74
On Space
0.99
0.4
0
0
0
4
N
N
Orphan
14.99
0
50
0
8
732
N
N
Black Bird
19.99
0
20
13
34
2.615384615
227
N
N
Gloom
6.99
0
20
8
17
2.125
159
N
N
Gilded Rails
5.99
0.35
2
3
7
2.333333333
11
N
Y
The Quiet Man
14.99
0.1
120
207
296
1.429951691
5596
N
N
0.31
KartKraft
19.99
0.1
150
90
223
2.477777778
7691
Y
N
0.84
The Other Half
7.99
0
2
3
27
9
91
N
Y
0.86
Parabolus
14.99
0.15
0
0
0
16
N
Y
Yet Another Tower Defense
1.99
0.4
20
22
38
1.727272727
396
N
N
0.65
Galaxy Squad
9.99
0.25
8
42
5.25
3741
Y
N
0.87
Swords and Soldiers 2
14.99
0.1
65
36
63
1.75
1742
N
N
0.84
SpitKiss
2.99
0
3
1
2
2
63
N
N
Holy Potatoes
14.99
0
24
11
22
2
617
N
N
0.7
Kursk
29.99
0.15
90
62
98
1.580645161
2394
N
N
0.57
SimpleRockets 2
14.99
0.15
90
142
272
1.915492958
3441
Y
N
0.85
Egress
14.99
0.15
160
44
75
1.704545455
7304
Y
N
0.67
Kynseed
9.99
0
600
128
237
1.8515625
12984
Y
N
0.86
11-11 Memories
29.99
0
30
10
69
6.9
767
N
N
0.96
Rage in Peace
12.99
0.1
15
10
42
4.2
377
N
N
0.85
One Hour One Life
19.99
0
12
153
708
4.62745098
573
N
N
0.81
Optica
9.99
0
0
2
3
1.5
18
N
N
Cybarian
5.99
0.15
8
4
18
4.5
225
N
N
Zeon 25
3.99
0.3
3
11
12
1.090909091
82
Y
N
Of Gods and Men
7.99
0.4
3
10
18
1.8
111
N
Y
Welcome to Princeland
4.99
0.1
1
15
55
3.666666667
30
N
N
0.85
Zero Caliber VR
24.99
0.1
100
169
420
2.485207101
5569
Y
N
0.73
HellSign
14.99
0
100
131
334
2.549618321
3360
Y
N
0.85
Thief Simulator
19.99
0.15
400
622
1867
3.001607717
10670
N
N
0.81
Last Stanza
7.99
0.1
8
2
4
2
228
N
Y
Evil Bank Manager
11.99
0.1
106
460
4.339622642
8147
Y
N
0.78
Oppai Puzzle
0.99
0.3
36
93
2.583333333
54
N
N
0.92
Hexen Hegemony
9.99
0.15
3
1
5
5
55
Y
N
Blokin
2.99
0
0
0
0
0
10
N
N
Light Fairytale Ep 1
9.99
0.1
80
23
54
2.347826087
4694
Y
N
0.89
The Last Sphinx
2.99
0.1
0
0
1
0
17
N
N
Glassteroids
9.99
0.2
0
0
0
0
5
Y
N
Hitman 2
59.99
0
2000
2653
3677
1.385978138
52226
N
N
0.88
Golf Peaks
4.99
0.1
1
8
25
3.125
46
N
N
1
Sipho
13.99
0
24
5
14
2.8
665
Y
N
Distraint 2
8.99
0.1
40
104
321
3.086538462
1799
N
N
0.97
Healing Harem
12.99
0.1
24
10
15
1.5
605
N
N
Spark Five
2.99
0.3
0
0
0
0
7
N
N
Bad Dream: Fever
9.99
0.2
30
78
134
1.717948718
907
N
N
0.72
Underworld Ascendant
29.99
0.15
200
216
288
1.333333333
8870
N
N
0.34
Reentry
19.99
0.15
8
24
78
3.25
202
Y
N
0.95
Zvezda
5.99
0
2
0
0
0
25
Y
Y
Space Gladiator
2.99
0
0
1
2
2
5
N
N
Bad North
14.99
0.1
500
360
739
2.052777778
15908
N
N
0.8
Sanctus Mortem
9.99
0.15
3
3
3
1
84
N
Y
The Occluder
1.99
0.2
1
1
1
1
13
N
N
Dark Fantasy: Jigsaw
2.99
0.2
1
9
36
4
32
N
N
0.91
Farming Simulator 19
34.99
0
1500
3895
5759
1.478562259
37478
N
N
0.76
Don't Forget Our Esports Dream
14.99
0.13
3
16
22
1.375
150
N
N
1
Space Toads Mayhem
3.99
0.15
1
2
3
1.5
18
N
N
Cattle Call
11.99
0.1
10
19
53
2.789473684
250
Y
N
0.71
Ralf
9.99
0.2
0
0
2
0
6
N
N
Elite Archery
0.99
0.4
0
2
3
1.5
5
Y
N
Evidence of Life
4.99
0
0
2
4
2
10
N
N
Trinity VR
4.99
0
2
8
15
1.875
61
N
N
Quiet as a Stone
9.99
0.1
1
1
4
4
42
N
N
Overdungeon
14.99
0
3
86
572
6.651162791
77
Y
N
0.91
Protocol
24.99
0.15
60
41
117
2.853658537
1764
N
N
0.68
Scraper: First Strike
29.99
0
3
3
15
5
69
N
N
Experiment Gone Rogue
16.99
0
1
1
5
5
27
Y
N
Emerald Shores
9.99
0.2
0
1
2
2
12
N
N
Age of Civilizations II
4.99
0
600
1109
2733
2.464382326
18568
N
N
0.82
Dereliction
4.99
0
0
0
0
#DIV/0!
18
N
N
Poopy Philosophy
0.99
0
0
6
10
1.666666667
6
N
N
NOCE
17.99
0.1
1
3
4
1.333333333
35
N
N
Qu-tros
2.99
0.4
0
3
7
2.333333333
4
N
N
Mosaics Galore. Challenging Journey
4.99
0.2
1
1
8
8
14
N
N
Zquirrels Jump
2.99
0.4
0
1
4
4
9
N
N
Dark Siders III
59.99
0
2400
1721
2708
1.573503777
85498
N
N
0.67
R-Type Dimensions Ex
14.99
0.2
10
48
64
1.333333333
278
N
N
0.92
Artifact
19.99
0
7000
9700
16584
1.709690722
140000
N
N
0.53
Crimson Keep
14.99
0.15
20
5
6
1.2
367
N
N
Rival Megagun
14.99
0
35
26
31
1.192307692
818
N
N
Santa's Workshop
1.99
0.1
3
1
1
1
8
N
N
Hentai Shadow
1.99
0.3
2
12
6
14
N
N
Ricky Runner
12.99
0.3
3
6
13
2.166666667
66
Y
N
0.87
Pro Fishing Simulator
39.99
0.15
24
20
19
0.95
609
N
N
0.22
Broken Reality
14.99
0.1
60
58
138
2.379310345
1313
N
Y
0.98
Rapture Rejects
19.99
0
200
82
151
1.841463415
9250
Y
N
0.64
Lost Cave
19.99
0
3
8
11
1.375
43
Y
N
Epic Battle Fantasy 5
14.99
0
300
395
896
2.26835443
4236
N
N
0.97
Ride 3
49.99
0
75
161
371
2.304347826
1951
N
N
0.74
Escape Doodland
9.99
0.2
25
16
19
1.1875
1542
N
N
Hillbilly Apocalypse
5.99
0.1
0
1
2
2
8
N
N
X4
49.99
0
1500
2638
4303
1.63115997
38152
N
N
0.7
Splotches
9.99
0.15
0
2
1
0.5
10
N
N
Above the Fold
13.99
0.15
5
2
6
3
65
Y
N
The Seven Chambers
12.99
0.3
3
0
0
#DIV/0!
55
N
N
Terminal Conflict
29.99
0
5
4
11
2.75
125
Y
N
Just Cause 4
59.99
0
2400
2083
3500
1.680268843
50000
N
N
0.34
Grapple Force Rena
14.99
0
11
12
29
2.416666667
321
N
Y
Beholder 2
14.99
0.1
479
950
1.983298539
16000
N
N
0.84
Blueprint Word
1.99
0
12
15
1.25
244
N
Y
Aeon of Sands
19.99
0.1
20
12
25
2.083333333
320
N
N
Oakwood
4.99
0.1
32
68
2.125
70
N
N
0.82
Endhall
4.99
0
4
22
42
1.909090909
79
N
N
0.84
Dr. Cares - Family Practice
12.99
0.25
6
3
8
2.666666667
39
N
N
Treasure Hunter
16.99
0.15
200
196
252
1.285714286
4835
N
N
0.6
Forex Trading
1.99
0.4
7
10
14
1.4
209
N
N
Ancient Frontier
14.99
0
24
5
16
3.2
389
N
N
Fear the Night
14.99
0.25
25
201
440
2.189054726
835
Y
N
0.65
Subterraneus
12.99
0.1
4
0
3
#DIV/0!
82
N
N
Starcom: Nexus
14.99
0.15
53
119
2.245283019
1140
Y
N
0.93
Subject 264
14.99
0.2
25
2
3
1.5
800
N
N
Gris
16.9
0
100
1484
4650
3.133423181
5779
N
N
0.96
Exiled to the Void
7.99
0.3
9
4
11
2.75
84
Y
N
Column Explanations For the columns that are not self-explanatory:
Launch Discount: Percent first week discount, 0.25 = 25% off
Week Guess: This is my guess, made before the game launched as to how many Steam purchaser reviews it would have after exactly one week.
Week Actual: The number of reviews that the game had after 1 week.
3 Month: The number of reviews that the game had after 3 months.
Followers: The number of group followers the game had prior to launch. In some cases this recorded just before launch, in some cases up to a week before.
Review score: The percent favorable score on Steam at the one month mark. Games needed a minimum of 20 reviews to be counted.
Question 1: Does Quality Predict Success?
There was a recent blog post stating that the #1 metric for indie games' success is how good it is. Quality is obviously a subjective metric. The most obvious objective measure of quality for Steam games is their % Favorable Review score. This is the percentage of reviews by purchasers of the game that gave the game a positive rating. I excluded any game that did not have at least 20 user reviews in the first month, which limited the sample size to 56. The (Pearson) correlation of a game's review score to its number of reviews three months after its release was -0.2. But 0.2 (plus or minus) isn't a very strong correlation at all. More importantly, Pearson correlation can be swayed if the data contains some big outliers. Looking at the actual games, we can see that the difference is an artifact of an outlier. Literally. Valve's Artifact by far had the most reviews after three months and had one of the lowest review scores (53% at the time). Removing this game from the data changed the correlation to essentially zero. Spearman's Rho, an alternative correlation model that correlates rank position and minimizes the effect of huge outliers produced a similar result. Conclusion: If there is correlation between a game's quality (as measured by Steam review score) and first quarter sales (as measured by total review count), it is too subtle to be detected in this data.
Question 2: Do Demos, Early Access or Launch Discounts Affect Success/Failure?
Unfortunately, there were so few games that had demos prior to release (10) that only a very strong correlation would really tell us anything. As it happens, there was no meaningful correlation one way or another. There were more Early Access titles (28), but again the correlation was too small to be meaningful. More than half the titles had a launch week discount and there was actually a moderate negative correlation of -0.3 between having a launch discount and first week review count. However it appears that this is primarily the result of the tendency of AAA titles (which sell the most copies) to not do launch discounts. Removing the titles that likely grossed over a $1 million in the first week reduced the correlation to basically zero. Conclusion: Insufficient data. No clear correlation between demos, Early Access or launch discount and review counts: if they help or hurt the effect is not consistent enough to be seen here.
Question 3: Does pre-launch awareness (i.e., Steam followers) predict success?
You can see the number of "followers" for any game on Steam by searching for its automatically-created Community Group. Prior to launch, this is a good rough indicator of market awareness. The correlation between group followers shortly before launch and review count at 3 months was 0.89. That's a very strong positive correlation. The rank correlation was also high (0.85) suggesting that this wasn't the result of a few highly anticipated games. Save for a single outlier (discussed later), the ratio of 3 month review counts to pre-launch followers ranged from 0 (for the handful of games that never received any reviews) to 1.8, with a median value of 0.1. If you have 1000 followers just prior to launch, then at the end of the first quarter you should expect "about" 100 reviews. One thing I noticed was that there were a few games that had follower counts that seemed too high compared to secondary indicators of market awareness, such as discussion forum threads and Twitter engagement. After some investigation I came to the conclusion that pre-launch key activations are treated as followers by Steam. If a game gave away a lot of Steam keys before launch (say as Kickstarter rewards or part of beta testing) this would cause the game to appear to have more followers than it had gained "organically." Conclusion: Organic followers prior to launch are a strong predictor of a game's eventual success.
Question 4: What about price?
The correlation between price and review count at 3 month is 0.36, which is moderate correlation. I'm not sure how useful that data point is: it is somewhat obvious that higher budget games have larger marketing budgets. There is a correlation between price and review score of -0.41. It seems likely that players do factor price into their reviews and a game priced at $60 has a higher bar to clear to earn a thumbs up review than a game priced at $10.
Question 5: Do first week sales predict first quarter results?
The correlation between number of reviews after 1 week and number of reviews after 3 months was 0.99. The Spearman correlation was 0.97. This is the highest correlation I found in the data. Excluding games that sold very few copies (fewer than 5 reviews after the first week), most games had around twice as many reviews after 3 months as they did after 1 week. This suggests that games sell about as many copies in their first week as they do in the next 12 weeks combined. The vast majority of games had a tail ratio (ratio of reviews at 3 months to 1 week) of between 1.3 to 3.2. I have seen a number of questions from developers whose game had a poor launch on Steam and wanted to know what they can do to improve sales. While I'm certain post-launch marketing can have an effect on continuing sales, your first week does seem to set hard bounds on your results. Conclusion: ALL SIGNS POINT TO YES
Question 6: Does Quality Help with a Game's "Tail"?
As discussed in the last question while first week sales are very strongly correlated with first quarter, there's still quite a wide range of ratios. Defining a game's Tail Ratio as the ratio of reviews after 3 months to after 1 week, the lowest value was 0.95 for "Pro Fishing Simulator" which actually managed to lose 1 review. The highest ratio was 6.9, an extreme outlier that I'll talk about later. It is perhaps not a coincidence that the worst tail had a Steam score of 22% and the best tail had a Steam score of 96%. The overall correlation between the Tail Ratio and Steam score was 0.42. Conclusion: Even though there is no clear correlation between quality and overall review count/sales, there is a moderate correlation between a game's review score and its tail. This suggests that "good games" do better in the long run than "bad games," but the effect is small compared to the more important factor of pre-launch awareness.
Question 7: Is it possible to predict a game's success before launch without knowing its wishlists?
While I was compiling the data for each game, sometime prior to its scheduled launch date, I would make a prediction of how many reviews I thought it would receive in its first week and add that prediction to the spreadsheet. The #1 factor I used in making my prediction was group follower count. In some cases I would adjust my prediction if I thought that value was off, using secondary sources such as Steam forum activity and Twitter engagement. The correlation between my guess and the actual value was 0.96, which is a very strong correlation. As you can see in the data, the predictions are, for the most part, in the right ballpack with a few cases where I was way off. Based on my experience, multiplying the group follower count by 0.1 will, in most cases, give you a ballpark sense of the first week quarter review count. If a game doesn't have at least one question in the discussion forum for every 100 followers, that may indicate that there are large number of "inorganic" followers and you may need to adjust your estimate. Conclusion: Yes, with a few exceptions, using follower data and other indicators you can predict first week results approximately. Given the strong correlation between first week and quarter sales, it should also be possible to have a ballpark idea of first quarter results before launch.
Final Question: What about the outliers you mentioned?
There were a few games in the data that stood out significantly in one way or another. Outlier #1: Overdungeon. This game had 77 group followers shortly before launch, a fairly small number and based solely on that number I would have expected fewer than a dozen reviews in the first week. It ended up with 86. Not only that, it had a strong tail and finished its first quarter with 572 reviews. This was by a wide margin the highest review count to follower ratio in the sample. Based on the reviews, it appears to basically be Slay the Spire, but huge in Asia. 90% of the reviews seem to be in Japanese or Chinese. If anyone has some insight to this game's unusual apparent success, I'm very curious. This seems to be the only clear example in the data of a game with minimal following prior to launch going on to having a solid first quarter. Outlier #2: 11-11 Memories Retold. This game had 767 group followers shortly before launch, ten times as many as Overdungeon. That's still not a large number for even a small indie title. It had a fair amount going for it, though: it was directed by Yoan Fanise, who co-directed the critally acclaimed Valiant Hearts, a game with a similar theme. It was animated by Aardman Studios of "Wallace and Gromit" fame. Its publisher was Bandai Namco Europe, a not inexperienced publisher. The voice acting was by Sebastian Koch and Elijah Wood. It has dozens of good reviews in both gaming and traditional press. It currently has a 95% positive review rating on Steam. Despite all that, nobody bought it. 24 hours after it came out it had literally zero reviews on Steam. One week after it came out it had just 10. Three months later it had demonstrated the largest tail in the data, but even then it had only climbed to 69 reviews. Now it's at about 100, an incredible tail ratio, but almost certainly a commercial failure. This is a solid example that good game + good production values does necessarily equal good sales. Final notes: The big take-aways from this analysis are:
The success of a game on Steam very strongly depends on its first week performance
A game's first week performance is strongly correlated with its pre-launch market awareness
Quality does not seem to strongly impact first week performance, but may have some positive effect on a game's "tail"
All inferences regarding sales are dependent on the relationship between review counts and sales
The coronavirus has changed everything. When analysts gave forecasts for 2020 at the end of last year, no one could foresee that the whole world would be seized by the pandemic. Call it a “black swan” or not, it’s necessary to re-evaluate the situation and adjust the medium- and the long-term outlook. Below you will find the analysis of the main Forex drivers and the overview of the prospects for the key commodities.
US recession
In 2019, economists had some fears of a potential US recession. Well, they were right not only about the USA, but also about the whole world as lockdowns pushed every country to the deep downturn. Now it’s clear that earlier the view was naturally more optimistic. How encouraging the US unemployment rate and NFP were at the end of 2019! We couldn’t imagine at that time that more than 33 million Americans would lose jobs and economic activity would fall to unprecedented lows. The Fed made a dire scenario for the prolonged US recession. All the needed measures have been taken, almost 3 trillion dollars were provided to support the market and additional aids are expected. Anyway, the US dollar gains as a safe-haven currency. The collapse of USD this year remains highly unlikely.
Central banks’ monetary policy
In December, we expected the Federal Reserve to be patient in its monetary policy decisions. At the same time, we didn’t underestimate the power of rate cuts due to recession fears. Coronavirus outbreak flipped the script with the Federal Reserve unveiling outstanding measures to support the suffering economy. The first rate cut from 1.5-1.75% to 1-1.25% happened at the beginning of March and was followed by an even bigger rate cut to the range of 0-0.25% just after a week. At the same time, the regulator announced an unlimited buying of mortgage-backed securities and plans to buy corporate bonds and bonds backed by consumer debt. Moreover, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t exclude the possibility of negative interest rates. Even though our forecasts were not 100% accurate, the upside for the USD has been indeed limited. As for the stock market, after a shock wave caused by Covid-19, the ultra-loose monetary policy pushed the indices up. Other major central banks also joined the easing game. The Reserve banks of Australia and New Zealand cut their interest rate to unprecedented lows of 0.25%. The Bank of England and the Bank of Canada lowered their interest rate as well to 0.1% and 0.25% respectively. As for the European Central bank, it keeps the zero interest rate on hold. The supportive tool the ECB presented is the 750 billion euro Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) aimed to counter the serious risks to the outlook of the Eurozone.
As all major central banks conduct almost similar easing policy, the Forex pairs can fluctuate within certain levels for a long period. That is actually a good news for range-bound traders, as channels are expected to remain quite strong.
ECB The European Central Bank let the market know that it was aiming to do whatever it takes to save the euro area from the coronavirus damage. However, trouble always brings his brother: Germany was so tired to be the sponsor of the unlimited bond-purchasing ECB program that the German court claimed that it actually violated constitution. Now, the ECB has three months to explain that purchases were "proportionate". The ECB credibility is under threat as Germany may pull out of the next ECB's bond purchases. This situation has made euro quite volatile.
Brexit
Boris Johnson hasn’t kept his promise “to get Brexit done” yet. However, we can forgive him for that as this year brings much worse problems to deal with. Now, when countries are getting over the coronavirus shock, the UK and EU should hold the last round of trade talks and finalize an agreement by the end of December. Some analysts are skeptical about that. They think the deadline could be extended beyond the end of December, leaving the UK subject to tariffs on most goods. This would be devastating for the British pound. The sooner the UK and EU make a deal, the better for GBP.
Oil
Oil prices spent last year between $50 and $70. December was positive with the US and China ceasing fire in the trade war and OPEC extending production cuts. Possibility of a scenario where prices drop to 0 and below was absolutely inconceivable even for the most pessimistic observers, and yet it came true. It marked the beginning of 2020 with historically unseen turbulence, even apart from the coronavirus hit. In the long term, however, there are all fundamentals for oil prices to get back to where they were. However, that may not happen this year. Observers predict that oil prices will recover to the levels of $55-60 if there is nothing in the way during the year. Otherwise, $30 is seen as the safest baseline level for the commodity during 2020.
Stocks
Just like in 2019, the stock market had a nightmarish beginning of 2020. S&P lost 35%, with some stocks losing more than 50% of value. As the summer season is coming, the market sees 50% of the losses recovered in most sectors. While the shape of recovery is being discussed, most analysts agree that after the worst-performing Q2, the S&P will continue restoring its value. Notice that the situation is different for different stocks. Locked by the anti-virus restrictions, most of the world population was forced to spend weeks and months at home facing their TVs, laptops, and desktops. That made strong Internet-related companies blossom, so we saw Amazon and Netflix rise to even higher value than before the virus. On the contrary, the healthcare sector struggling to invent the vaccine saw Moderna, BionTech, Inovio, and other new and old pharma companies surge to unexpected heights.
IT and Internet communications companies will likely gain much more attention during the year.
Google, Nvidia, Disney, Apple, and many more around the IT and Internet sectors have the full potential to spearhead the S&P in 2020 and further on.
Unthinkable a few weeks ago, Wall Street sees a chance of rates falling as low as zero this year
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 55%. (I'm a bot)
Goldman Sachs economists said Sunday that they see the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points by its March meeting or sooner, and probably 100 basis points this year, a forecast about in consensus with current market pricing. Traders in the fed funds futures market are indicating about a 9% probability that the fed funds rate, which serves as benchmark for other very short-term rates, will fall to a range of zero to 25 basis points by December, according to the CME's FedWatch tracker. "One of the recurring themes in optimal monetary policy near the zero lower bound is that when growth risks occur with policy rates within the neighborhood of zero, then the central bank should act early and aggressively," JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, said in a note. New York Fed President John Williams caused a stir in July 2019 when he noted the same research that pointed to cutting rates dramatically rather than incrementally when they are already low. Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh told CNBC on Friday that the Fed, BOJ, European Central Bank, Bank of England and others should act in concert with a cut on the order of 50 basis points. The fed funds rate is trading in a range between 1.5% and 1.75%. That's higher than any U.S. Treasury bill, note or bond, the first time that's happened since 2008, according to FOREX.com.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Topkeywords: rate#1Fed#2act#3policy#4bank#5 Post found in /Economics and /NBCauto. NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
[educational] Stretgies for day trading based on Technical Analysis
1. Breakout
Breakout strategies center around when the price clears a specified level on your chart, with increased volume. The breakout trader enters into a long position after the asset or security breaks above resistance. Alternatively, you enter a short position once the stock breaks below support. After an asset or security trades beyond the specified price barrier, volatility usually increases and prices will often trend in the direction of the breakout. You need to find the right instrument to trade. When doing this bear in mind the asset’s support and resistance levels. The more frequently the price has hit these points, the more validated and important they become.
Entry Points
This part is nice and straightforward. Prices set to close and above resistance levels require a bearish position. Prices set to close and below a support level need a bullish position.
Plan your exits
Use the asset’s recent performance to establish a reasonable price target. Using chart patterns will make this process even more accurate. You can calculate the average recent price swings to create a target. If the average price swing has been 3 points over the last several price swings, this would be a sensible target. Once you’ve reached that goal you can exit the trade and enjoy the profit. https://preview.redd.it/0oj4a1xlvdh31.png?width=773&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f2aa07b0c7caeeb00c4f997c12e814abbd380da
2. Scalping
One of the most popular strategies is scalping. It’s particularly popular in the forex market, and it looks to capitalise on minute price changes. The driving force is quantity. You will look to sell as soon as the trade becomes profitable. This is a fast-paced and exciting way to trade, but it can be risky. You need a high trading probability to even out the low risk vs reward ratio. Be on the lookout for volatile instruments, attractive liquidity and be hot on timing. You can’t wait for the market, you need to close losing trades as soon as possible. https://preview.redd.it/dzaf7t1nvdh31.png?width=653&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3d96d74311de806c3809698df2a964e3eb4db5e
3. Momentum
Popular amongst trading strategies for beginners, this strategy revolves around acting on news sources and identifying substantial trending moves with the support of high volume. There is always at least one stock that moves around 20-30% each day, so there’s ample opportunity. You simply hold onto your position until you see signs of reversal and then get out. Alternatively, you can fade the price drop. This way round your price target is as soon as volume starts to diminish. This strategy is simple and effective if used correctly. However, you must ensure you’re aware of upcoming news and earnings announcements. Just a few seconds on each trade will make all the difference to your end of day profits. https://preview.redd.it/z4r2o6covdh31.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=b054c77c4bc5978821e879eff73d613d728cb0cf
4. Reversal
Although hotly debated and potentially dangerous when used by beginners, reverse trading is used all over the world. It’s also known as trend trading, pull back trending and a mean reversion strategy. This strategy defies basic logic as you aim to trade against the trend. You need to be able to accurately identify possible pullbacks, plus predict their strength. To do this effectively you need in-depth market knowledge and experience. The ‘daily pivot’ strategy is considered a unique case of reverse trading, as it centers on buying and selling the daily low and high pullbacks/reverse. https://preview.redd.it/4ya3txcpvdh31.png?width=776&format=png&auto=webp&s=f40216413b1376b2d6d5a67e4d09057f55be6ba1
5. Using Pivot Points
A day trading pivot point strategy can be fantastic for identifying and acting on critical support and/or resistance levels. It is particularly useful in the forex market. In addition, it can be used by range-bound traders to identify points of entry, while trend and breakout traders can use pivot points to locate key levels that need to break for a move to count as a breakout.
Calculating Pivot Points
A pivot point is defined as a point of rotation. You use the prices of the previous day’s high and low, plus the closing price of a security to calculate the pivot point. Note that if you calculate a pivot point using price information from a relatively short time frame, accuracy is often reduced. So, how do you calculate a pivot point?
Central Pivot Point (P) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
You can then calculate support and resistance levels using the pivot point. To do that you will need to use the following formulas:
First Resistance (R1) = (2*P) – Low
First Support (S1) = (2*P) – High
The second level of support and resistance is then calculated as follows:
Second Resistance (R2) = P + (R1-S1)
Second Support (S2) = P – (R1- S1)
Application
When applied to the FX market, for example, you will find the trading range for the session often takes place between the pivot point and the first support and resistance levels. This is because a high number of traders play this range. It’s also worth noting, this is one of the systems & methods that can be applied to indexes too. For example, it can help form an effective S&P day trading strategy
6. Moving Average Crossover
You will need three moving average lines:
One set at 20 periods – This is your fast moving average
One set at 60 periods – This is your slow moving average
One set at 100 periods – This is your trend indicator
This is one of the moving averages strategies that generates a buy signal when the fast moving average crosses up and over the slow moving average. A sell signal is generated simply when the fast moving average crosses below the slow moving average. So, You’ll open a position when the moving average line crosses in one direction and you’ll close the position when it crosses back the opposite way. How can you establish there’s definitely a trend? You know the trend is on if the price bar stays above or below the 100-period line. the source : https://www.daytrading.com/strategies
2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point
2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point Crosspost: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg47569859#msg47569859 History —08-JAN-2018: Elliott Wave, https://redd.it/7ptsg3 —12-JAN-2018: Crypto Black Monday, https://redd.it/7pxg0d —24-JAN-2018: Dotcom vs Crypto, https://redd.it/7skzff —21-FEB-2018: Bear Market Resumes, https://redd.it/7z8u6n —28-FEB-2018: Halfway Through, https://redd.it/7umjf9 —13-MAR-2018: Fare Thee Well Ten Thousand, #10kNeverAgain: https://redd.it/842ssd —19-MAR-2018: Equinox, https://redd.it/85m5tr —03-APR-2018: April Fools’ Rally, https://redd.it/89jqye —19-APR-2018: 420 High, https://redd.it/8dbz4f —25-APR-2018: Symmetrical Triangle, https://redd.it/8ev2ki —06-MAY-2018: Ten Thousand Tease, https://redd.it/8hdhjn —29-MAY-2018: Triangle Phinance, https://redd.it/8mwx6z —10-JUN-2018: Triangle Phinance II, https://redd.it/8q5p68 —23-JUL-2018: Redux, https://redd.it/913xx6 —02-SEP-2018: #ShortSeptember, https://redd.it/9c96vk —04-NOV-2018: Inflection Point, https://redd.it/9u1y3z TLDR:https://i.imgur.com/EGmziB1.png The Bitcoin and cryptocurrency bear market of 2018 has reached a point of inflection, where alternative scenarios and projections can now be explored using Elliott Wave theory. From the 17-DEC-2017 high to the 06-FEB-2018 low, the Bitcoin market endured a 70% price collapse from the all-time high of $19,891 to a low of $6,000 in just 51 days (BITFINEX). In Elliott Wave parlance, this first phase crash is a simple but sharp three wave a-b-c zigzag pattern. From the 06-FEB-2018 low, the Bitcoin market then wandered sideways for 168 days until 24-JUL-2018, creating a floor of support at $6,000 whilst making successively lower highs. The psychological $6,000 price has been guarded since it marks support of the psychological USD$100 billion Bitcoin marketcap. In Elliott Wave parlance, this second phase of market development is a triangle pattern consisting of five a-b-c-d-e waves. The internal structure of the waves within the triangle are related to each other in terms of length as the following Fibonacci ratios:
https://i.imgur.com/Bm4Nx7a.png The triangle phase of the Bitcoin market completed at the 24-JUL-2018 high. Since then, the third phase of market has been underway with an expectation of creating new lows for 2018 at sub $6,000 prices. Initial approx targets have been projected as follows (BITSTAMP):
@5920: Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @5220: Fibonacci 0.786% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @4327: Fibonacci 0.100% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @4200: Fibonacci 78.6% decline of entire Bitcoin market.
Any of the aforementioned approx price levels based on Fibonacci projections are potential targets of where the 2018 bear market may conclude. Should price retrace below the Fibonacci 78.6% of the entire Bitcoin market, i.e. below the psychological $4,000 level; it may suggest the bear market extends into 2019 with an expectation of a 90%-95% decline of the entire Bitcoin market to approx $1,000 by 2020. Such a scenario would be consistent with the collapse of other historical asset mania bubble bursts, which typically elapse 2 years on average: thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes However, the Bitcoin market has reached an inflection point. The third phase of the bear market appears to have stagnated in price and time. Since 09-SEP-2018, price has traded in a narrow 10% range at an average price of $6,400 for almost 60 days thus far. Volatility is now at a 22-month low and technicals such as moving averages are flat-lining across daily timeframes. This behaviour has been quite unexpected. Since completion of the consolidating triangle phase of the market, volume and volatility was expected to breakout. Speculators and traders have left the stabilised cryptocurrency marketplace in favour of the more volatile global equity bear markets. An alternative scenario can now be considered: Since completion of the triangle at the 24-JUL-2018 high, the concluding phase of the bear market may have declined and truncated at the 11-OCT-2018 low. If so, a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market may be commencing within an overall secular (i.e. long-term) bear market. Such a bull market would be termed as a wave-X as part of a complex ongoing long-term bear market structure. https://i.imgur.com/vePkBiL.png In some schools of Elliott Wave thought, the wave-X bull market may unfold in five 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive waves; or, as three a-b-c corrective waves considered in other schools of thought. Either way, the size of a wave-X is challenging to predict. Typically, it may retrace either a Fibonacci 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% of the entire 2018 bear market; that is approx $11,081 or $12,720 or $14,360 or $16,705 respectively (BITSTAMP). In some cases, a wave-X may extend to, and even exceed prior all-time highs, like typically seen in commodity and forex markets. The wave-X cyclical bull market could be a swift parabolic move elapsing within 12 months during the course of 2019, and thus the overall secular bear market may still resume to unfold to a low in late 2020. In summary, the parameters of the inflection point can be currently defined as follows, using BITSTAMP prices… Bear Market Inflection Points —A break below the 11-OCT-2018 low of $6,055 would be the first indication to suggest the bear market is still underway. —A break below the 14-AUG-2018 low of $5,880 would confirm the ongoing bear market. —A break below $4,000 may suggest an extended bear market leading to a 90%-95% collapse of the entire Bitcoin market by 2020. Bull Market Inflection Points —A break above the 15-OCT-2018 high of $6,756 would be the first indication to suggest a bull market may be commencing. —A break above the 04-SEP-2018 high of $7,412 would likely confirm a bull market is underway. Notes —Bitcoin CBOE XBT futures expiries: 14-NOV-2018, 19-DEC-2018 —Bitcoin CME futures last trade dates: 30-NOV-2018, 28-DEC-2018 —Bitcoin ICE Bakkt daily futures tentative launch: 12-DEC-2018 —S&P500: global stockmarket indices appear to have topped, and a bear market is underway. Expectation is a rally into the end of year 2018 towards $2,800+ in the S&P500 index, followed by a decline to approx $2,400 by Easter 2019 to end the brief equity bear market. —Gold: rally underway, expectation to conclude at approx $1,260, and then bear market resumes to sub $1,000 by 2020. —US Dollar: expecting uptrend to be bounded by approx 98, and then bear market resumes. Elliott Wave models are speculative and indicative of price and structure, not time; i.e. the projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated. —BTC (Weekly): https://i.imgur.com/B0ftUHf.png —BTC (Daily): https://i.imgur.com/ljfMvlt.png —BTC (4-hr): https://i.imgur.com/Ip1QQTe.png
Follow Golden Rules and Consistently Win Trades Introduction Habits are something that is very difficult to change, so why not cultivate some good habits. For a Trader one such habit should be of winning trades. But certainly to achieve that some techniques or golden rules must be practiced wholeheartedly. Systematic Planning and following that is one of the basic rules a trader must follow. A combination of all such techniques when applied together forms the mantra that leads you to the path of success. The paramount techniques that every plan must have: Examine your skills Trade only when you are ready to trade. Know your skills and plan accordingly, because when you follow the tricks what other traders do, sometimes it might not work. So realizing your skills and planning according to it would earn you profit. Be prepared consciously For a Trader, the mental strength is an important factor, be it his/her daily life or in forex trading. A trader should not get affected by any mental or physical trauma that will interrupt the way to his/her success. A trader must set a goal and repeat it like an incantation to stay away from any distractions. To be in a place where distractions are bound, a trader must learn to dodge. Set the Risk levels The reason a trader must have his/her risk level in a safer zone is because there is a chance that your portfolio will be on risk. The range can be set anywhere around 1% to 5%. Keep your intentions high There is a saying "What you think, you become". So think Big and set your goals higher while keeping your head on your neck and setting real & achievable targets and also focusing on the risk to reward ratios. When you realize the profit is much greater than the risk, it is worth taking the risk. Carry on with the same approach with some high goal and believe that you can achieve it with your skill in trading. Practice in private. Practice makes man perfect but definitely, there is a difference between bravery and stupidity. You can’t afford to invest your hard earned money for a gamble in trading without a deep study of the things going around. Have an eye on what is happening around the world before stepping into the market. Get to know whether the overseas market is moving up or down so it will be useful for you to plan accordingly. Preparation No matter which trading system and program you work on, the only thing you need to make sure is that you tag or mark the major and minor support and resistance levels. Setting notifications or alarms for your entry and exit signals would be a great idea and to safeguard this you need to make necessary arrangements to easily identify these signals when received, using a visual or audible method. A plan to exit Traders passionately concentrate on how to enter a market, but they don’t concentrate on when and where to exit, which is equally important as the entry level. Better make a proper plan for the exit before entering a trade. Traders don’t sell off their positions if the market is going against them as they don’t prefer to be in the stage of loss. A trader must be very confident and he /she should get over the loss and move forward. More comparingly, traders tend to lose more than winning, in the field of trading. So by managing the money, traders do make profits at the end. Proper Documentation Maintaining the data for the trades your won & loss is another good practice a trader must follow. Note down the entry & exit points you choose, open & closed positions of the market at that time, the targets that you had set for the support & resistance levels, and even the Overseas market updates. Equally important is the data & conditions that landed you in a loss will enable you to understand the factors that went against you and those which can be avoided and taken care in the future. Keeping a track of all your trading strategies will make you a successful trader. Conclusion Taking into consideration all of the above points if followed sincerely will lead your way towards a successful trading career. Nobody can guarantee that every trade will be profitable, it is your efforts and skills in studying the market along with your presence of mind that will lead your way. No matter what happens you should not be driven by your emotions while trading. Trading on paper and real money trading are two different things but yes surely practicing more will give you some extra confidence to take a brave step as you have already tested it on paper. We Alfa Financials one of the regulated forex brokers in UAE offers access to many forex trading pairs through your trading account.
https://preview.redd.it/fsjc1w0q8jr11.jpg?width=1590&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=00099197b71aea50a43f32219cc36f8fa7c8bf7d Background The use of cryptocurrency is spreading fast among business communities around the world. One niche with great potential for cryptocurrency use is the market of traditional tradable assets of foreign currencies, shares, bonds, interest rates and minerals. As soon as the right regulations on blockchain are put in place, traders will be able to use cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin to trade assets. The doors will be wide open for institutional investors, international manufacturers and merchants to start using cryptocurrencies for transactions. Paying for delivered products with cryptocurrencies will greatly reduce transaction expenses since the system is fast, secure and free of additional fees. These qualities will enable buyers and sellers in these markets to guard against risk and save a little cash. You can imagine the asset demand the use of cryptocurrency in the stock markets would create. The volume of speculation and hedging operations of traders will grow significantly. Combined with high-frequency robots and trading algorithms that help perform transactions faster and more accurately, the market volumes and the income of trading platforms is bound to skyrocket. Market analysis As per the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) over the counter derivatives were traded for a whopping $632.5 trillion in 2012. In the same year, traditional exchange markets garnered $52.5 trillion. When the two are compared, the former made 92% of the global derivative market while the latter only made 8%. For comparison According to WTO, · Global commodity trade made: $18.255 trillion in 2011, $18.323 trillion in 2012, · Service trade made: $4.2433 trillion in 2011 and $4.4232 trillion in 2012 These values are still way behind the derivative market trade volumes. What are the challenges? Delving into the asset markets with cryptocurrencies as a means of trade comes with a few challenges. For one, it is difficult for private persons with small investments to access these markets. And even if you were a big corporation, there is currently no opportunity to trade with exchange asset derivative instruments that are expressed in cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin.) How Traditional Stock exchanges work Trading is carried out with the use of fiat currencies and is performed through brokers. The brokers work for huge corporations hence the high expenses and large volumes of transactions. The volume of one trade at exchange markets with the real delivery of currency on the second working day could make up to about $5 million. On the other hand, the cost of one conversion transaction makes from $60 to $300. On top of these costs, a trader could spend up to $6000 a month for interbank information and trading terminal. This is obviously not conducive for small-scale traders. In order to curb the high costs of trade, two American stock exchanges, CBOE and CME introduced trade with futures for BTC at the end of 2017. The only problem is that they impose high requirements on the lot size. Another challenge is that futures at these stock exchanges are calculated and not delivered hence trade participants cannot actually buy BTC. Curbstone brokers Curbstone brokers or otherwise known as ‘bucket shops’ are forex brokers who offer clients small transactions without registering them with the interbank market. The brokers act as an opposite side in a transaction which means that the client's profit turns out to be the broker’s loss, and the client's loss - into broker's profit. This conflict of interest has resulted in brokers manipulating charts to make transactions of their clients unprofitable. Bucket shops do not publish reports on transactions, which makes activities of such brokers non-transparent. Of late, many of them have begun offering trade with cryptocurrencies. It makes trading flexible but not ethical and trustworthy as it is with the traditional stock exchanges. As a matter of fact, this lack of trust in curbstone brokership has led to their ban in some countries where they are considered fraudulent. So what is the solution? Cryptocurrencies have enabled ordinary people and investors to save and grow their money discreetly away from unfair control or seizure by state regulatory bodies. The use of cryptocurrency in the blockchain network is a powerful expression of freedom that should be spread across all trading platforms. In this regard, we believe in the development of future exchange asset derivative instruments that make use of the available cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and other high-liquid cryptocurrencies. This will make bull or bear traditional assets widely accessible to professionals and beginning traders. More importantly, there will be lower transaction fees about 0.05% when compared to spot exchanges (Bitfinex, Binance, Kraken, and Poloniex) that charge in the range of 0.1 to 2%. BITEX.ONE BlTEX.ONE is one such innovative trading platform that allows for international trading with assets expressed in cryptocurrencies with a transparent transaction system for the customers. It also has anti-fraud prevention measures to guard against chart manipulations. The platform allows traders to increase their Bitcoins by speculating on the changes in the price of accessible traditional exchange assets such as the dollar, the euro, gold, oil, beans, cocoa or share indexes. Mission Our greatest mission is to bring the usage of blockchain and cryptocurrencies into the trading arena. We believe that the creation and functioning of the BITEX.ONE platform for trading with futures on traditional assets would achieve this. The growing popularity of cryptocurrencies in many developing countries will soon provide them with a legitimate status through effective legislation. When this plane takes off, we want to be ready with an elaborate platform for institutional investors to use cryptocurrencies as investment instruments. Working with futures on traditional assets will create an opportunity for investors to make substantial profit for their customers.
Abstract The Dual Thrust trading algorithm is a famous strategy developed by Michael Chalek. It has been commonly used in futures, forex and equity markets. The idea of Dual Thrust is similar to a typical breakout system, however dual thrust uses the historical price to construct update the look back period - theoretically making it more stable in any given period. www.fmz.com In this tutorial we give an instruction details to the strategy and show how to implement this algorithm on FMZ. After pulling in the historical price of the chosen trading pairs, the range is calculated based on the close, high and low over the most recent N-days. A position is opened when the market moves a certain range from the opening price. We tested the strategy on individual trading pairs under two market states a trending market and range bound market. The results suggest this momentum trading system works better in trending market but will trigger some fake buy and sell signals in much more volatile market. Under the range bound market, we can adjust the parameters to get better return. As a comparison of individual trading pairs, we also implemented the strategy on BTC/USDT. The result suggested that the strategy beat the market. Its logical prototype is one of the more common Day trading strategies. The opening range breakout strategy is based on today's opening price plus or minus a certain percentage of yesterday's amplitude to determine the upper and lower rails. When the price breaks through the upper track, it will buy long, and when it breaks the lower track, it will sell short. The basic principle of this strategy www.fmz.com
after the market closed today, calculate two values: the highest price - the closing price, and the closing price - the lowest price. Then take the one which is larger in these two values, multiply this value by 0.7. let’s call it value K. The result is called the trigger value.
after the market opening tomorrow, record the opening price, then buy immediately when the price exceeds (opening price + trigger value), or sell short when the price is lower than (opening price - trigger value).
This strategy has no clear stop loss. This system is a reverse system, that is, if there is a short position order holding at the price exceed the (open + trigger value), then it will send two buying order (one to close the wrong position, another one to open the new position for the right direction). For the same reason, if there is a long position order holding at the price lower the (opening-trigger value), then it will send two selling order.
Which by mathematical expiation is : range=max(HH−LC,HC−LL) The long signal is calculated by cap=open+K1×Rangecap=open+K1×Range . The short signal is calculated by floor=open–K2×Rangefloor=open–K2×Range where K1 and K2 are the parameters. When K1 is greater than K2, it is much easier to trigger the long signal and vice versa. For demonstration, here we choose K1 = K2 = 0.5. In live trading, we can still use historical data to optimize those parameters or adjust the parameters according to the market trend. K1 should be small than k2 if you are bullish on the market and k1 should be much bigger if you are bearish on the market. www.fmz.com This system is a reversal system, so if the investor holds a short position when the price breaks the cap line, the short margin should be liquidated first before opening a long position. If the investor holds a long position when the price breaks the floor line, the long margin should be liquidated first before opening a new short position. Dual Thrust has made improvements in this opening range breakthrough strategy: www.fmz.com
In the range setting, the four price points of the previous N days are introduced, so that the range in a certain period is relatively stable, and can be applied to the daytime trend tracking;
2, Dual Thrust for the buying long and selling short trigger conditions, consider the asymmetric amplitude, long and short reference Range can choose a different number of cycles, can also be determined by parameters K1 and K2. When K1K2, the short position is relatively easy to be triggered. Therefore, when using this strategy, on the one hand, you can refer to the optimal parameters of historical data testing. On the other hand, you can start to adjust K1 and K2 in stages according to your own judgment of the post-trend or from other major cycle technical indicators. This is a typical trading way of waiting for signals, entering the market, arbitrage, and leaving the market, but the effect is outstanding. www.fmz.com www.fmz.com
https://preview.redd.it/8uc3berff2g11.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=56b0505f79db9ada8014c84d345cd0c0025f14f5 The Best Six Crypto Trading Strategies Revealed Cryptocurrency also called digital currency, virtual currency or alternate currency is emerging as the future of money. The crypto world provides an enormous return on investment for traders to flourish and prosper. Due to the decentralized control and the blockchain technology, people find crypto trading to be more transparent as it doesn’t require a central authority. On the other hand, the crypto market is very sensitive and security breaches can happen at fraction of a second. There are many hacks that happened in the crypto market that shook the world. Bithumb was hacked at June 2018 and $30 million coins were stolen. These incidents are a mounting evidence which proves how violative is the cryptocurrency market. This article will unveil the top trading strategies that can be used for both stock market and cryptocurrency trading. Scalping Scalping is the act of attaining huge profits on minor changes in the asset(coin). Traders who implement this strategy is called a “scalper”. Here the scalpers believe that small moves in the stock price can gain huge profits. The idea is to buy or sell a number of assets at the holding time and sell them higher or lower for a profit. This scalping strategy is perfect for intraday trading. Technical analysis has to be done before scalping and a scalper spends 8-10 hours in the forex market. A scalper should be proactive to take advantage of the fluctuations in the market. Scalping is more trending in the cryptocurrency market due to the fluctuations in the price of the tokens. Scalping if done statistically keeping in mind of avoiding late entries, overtrading and late exists, scalpers will be able to reap the desired profit in the cryptocurrency trading. Day trading Day trading is the most lucrative strategy for people in both the stock and crypto market. This trading is quite similar to the scalping method. The difference is in scalping there are hundreds of transactions done whereas in day trading only very few transactions are done. To be precise, day trading is buying or selling of assets on the same day, to make the most of the market fluctuations. Traders make the most from the minute changes of the price of the asset/coin. A day trader can make double the profit which means he or she can gain more money from the original money they have spend. Here the holding time is eliminated as the traders hold their assets to a maximum of 2 hours per day. This day trading strategy for cryptocurrency would work only if the market is stable. Range-bound trading Range-bound trading is the trading capitalizing on stocks in price channels. This trading is widely used by forex traders and other traders. The concept behind the range-bound trading is identifying the support and resistance areas in order to connect reaction highs and lows with a horizontal trendline. The reliability of the trendlines depends on the number of times the price has reacted to it. The method is traders repeatedly buy at the support trendline and sell at the resistance trendline until the security breaks out from a price channel. In range-bound trading, it is imperative for the traders to watch for potential breakouts and breakdowns. Swing trading Swing trading is similar to the day trading. In day trading the holding time of an asset is a maximum couple of hours a day whereas in swing trade the holding time can extend up to a week or couple of weeks. This type of trading involves in identifying the trends lows, highs and calculating the risk. Before jumping into the swing trading a lot of market analysis has to be done by the trader. A sound technical analysis is needed than day trading. Using this strategy in cryptocurrency is based on the estimation of the trend line and when it is going swing high. Position trading Position trading is also called as HOLDing, where an investor holds on his assets through its highs and lows without the intention to sell it. The concept of HOlDing is just buying the coins and put them in your wallet. The investors do not involve in any transactions from months to years and only sells his coins with his own intention or find a threat to his asset. A position trader is neither worried about the market fluctuations nor bothers of the daily, monthly news of the crypto market. This position trading is implemented once or twice a year which makes the trader a long-term investor. Arbitrage trading Arbitrage is the simplest method of trading. The concept behind this trading is buying a coin from an exchange where the price is lower and selling it in another exchange where the price is relatively high for that particular coin. The price difference marks the profit gain for the trader. This kind of trading is widely used in the crypto market as it doesn’t require any technical knowledge to perform it. Arbitrage trading can be automated and can be performed by a bot. This trading may present a lucrative window of opportunity to generate passive income for the newbies entering the cryptomarket.
https://preview.redd.it/6jp0w5x7f2g11.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cc1ce04b711c2c83a05d4a1f3d9a963e43172a02 The Best Six Crypto Trading Strategies Revealed Cryptocurrency also called digital currency, virtual currency or alternate currency is emerging as the future of money. The crypto world provides an enormous return on investment for traders to flourish and prosper. Due to the decentralized control and the blockchain technology, people find crypto trading to be more transparent as it doesn’t require a central authority. On the other hand, the crypto market is very sensitive and security breaches can happen at fraction of a second. There are many hacks that happened in the crypto market that shook the world. Bithumb was hacked at June 2018 and $30 million coins were stolen. These incidents are a mounting evidence which proves how violative is the cryptocurrency market. This article will unveil the top trading strategies that can be used for both stock market and cryptocurrency trading. Scalping Scalping is the act of attaining huge profits on minor changes in the asset(coin). Traders who implement this strategy is called a “scalper”. Here the scalpers believe that small moves in the stock price can gain huge profits. The idea is to buy or sell a number of assets at the holding time and sell them higher or lower for a profit. This scalping strategy is perfect for intraday trading. Technical analysis has to be done before scalping and a scalper spends 8-10 hours in the forex market. A scalper should be proactive to take advantage of the fluctuations in the market. Scalping is more trending in the cryptocurrency market due to the fluctuations in the price of the tokens. Scalping if done statistically keeping in mind of avoiding late entries, overtrading and late exists, scalpers will be able to reap the desired profit in the cryptocurrency trading. Day trading Day trading is the most lucrative strategy for people in both the stock and crypto market. This trading is quite similar to the scalping method. The difference is in scalping there are hundreds of transactions done whereas in day trading only very few transactions are done. To be precise, day trading is buying or selling of assets on the same day, to make the most of the market fluctuations. Traders make the most from the minute changes of the price of the asset/coin. A day trader can make double the profit which means he or she can gain more money from the original money they have spend. Here the holding time is eliminated as the traders hold their assets to a maximum of 2 hours per day. This day trading strategy for cryptocurrency would work only if the market is stable. Range-bound trading Range-bound trading is the trading capitalizing on stocks in price channels. This trading is widely used by forex traders and other traders. The concept behind the range-bound trading is identifying the support and resistance areas in order to connect reaction highs and lows with a horizontal trendline. The reliability of the trendlines depends on the number of times the price has reacted to it. The method is traders repeatedly buy at the support trendline and sell at the resistance trendline until the security breaks out from a price channel. In range-bound trading, it is imperative for the traders to watch for potential breakouts and breakdowns. Swing trading Swing trading is similar to the day trading. In day trading the holding time of an asset is a maximum couple of hours a day whereas in swing trade the holding time can extend up to a week or couple of weeks. This type of trading involves in identifying the trends lows, highs and calculating the risk. Before jumping into the swing trading a lot of market analysis has to be done by the trader. A sound technical analysis is needed than day trading. Using this strategy in cryptocurrency is based on the estimation of the trend line and when it is going swing high. Position trading Position trading is also called as HOLDing, where an investor holds on his assets through its highs and lows without the intention to sell it. The concept of HOlDing is just buying the coins and put them in your wallet. The investors do not involve in any transactions from months to years and only sells his coins with his own intention or find a threat to his asset. A position trader is neither worried about the market fluctuations nor bothers of the daily, monthly news of the crypto market. This position trading is implemented once or twice a year which makes the trader a long-term investor. Arbitrage trading Arbitrage is the simplest method of trading. The concept behind this trading is buying a coin from an exchange where the price is lower and selling it in another exchange where the price is relatively high for that particular coin. The price difference marks the profit gain for the trader. This kind of trading is widely used in the crypto market as it doesn’t require any technical knowledge to perform it. Arbitrage trading can be automated and can be performed by a bot. This trading may present a lucrative window of opportunity to generate passive income for the newbies entering the cryptomarket.
I just started trading in cryptocurrency market with small amounts.I start gaining knowledge about this market since December 2016.Between January & February 2017 I have seen ETH on 1ETH = $12.When I search about it for first and found it rises from low price,so I decided to wait for down trend but it rises upto 1ETH= $45.Here again I left it then it crossed $100 mark and last rose upto $420 and then fall to $120 and again rises above $300.Now since 3-4months its in a range bound between $225 to $350.Now I can't say where it will move.As my background is of forex trader for many years,in my views Ethereum can rise anytime above $500 in near future if it protect itself from any hole in its technology and demand.Rest Allah know the best
How Fed Funds Rate Works (and Why Forex Traders Should Care)
The aim of this post is to show how the current federal funds rate operation differs from its pre-crisis model and how it is important to Forex traders.
Before 2008
When things were simple (before 2008), the Federal Reserve set its target federal funds rate (FFR) as a single number and made sure that the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) is at the target level by performing open market operations (OMO). Those OMO normally included repurchase agreements (repo or RP) to temporarily increase the reserves supply in the federal funds market (FFM) (and thus reduce the demand and the EFFR) and reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) to temporarily decrease the supply of reserves and drive the EFFR up. It worked very well because the total size of bank reserves was rather small ($15 billion) in pre-crisis times.
Our times
Nowadays, when the Fed is holding $2.27 trillion in reserve balances (as of March 27, 2017), the old scheme would not fare so well. There is no scarcity of reserve balances at all. To create it, the Fed would need to sell a big share of its securities to shrink the total reserves to manageable size. But that would create some problems — it would drive down the prices of those securities and would launch a series of unpredictable market feedback loops. Instead, what the Fed is doing since 2008 is setting a target FFR as a range between two interest rates. For example, it is 0.75%-1.00% as of today while the EFFR, measured as volume-weighted median, was at 0.91% during the last 3 days.
Ceiling rate
The Fed makes sure that the FFM respects the target bounds by setting the interest on excess reserves (IOER) to the top boundary rate. When 95% of the reserve balances are the excess balances (balances exceeding the required level), the IOER rate paid by the Fed to the banks for holding these reserves serves as the ceiling for the rate corridor. It may sound counter-intuitive, because IOER would have been a floor level if only the FFM was composed only of the banks. However, it is not the case. The government-sponsored enterprises (GSE), such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Federal Home Loan Banks, comprise the bulk of the FFM. GSEs do not earn IOER on reserve balances kept at the Fed. This creates an arbitrage opportunity for banks to borrow from GSEs and allocate the funds with the Fed to earn IOER. Consequently, the interest rate of GSE's loans to banks should be below IOER.
Floor rate
And how about the floor of the rate range (the 0.75% part of today's target range)? It is enforced by the Fed through the OMO called overnight repurchase agreement (ON RRP). With it, the Fed can drain some reserves from the system by borrowing cash from market participants, giving them securities as a collateral. Since not only banks can earn interest on their funds with ON RRP (GSEs can also do it), this sets the de facto lower boundary for the EFFR. Who would lend at a lower rate if they can choose to get at least this rate from the risk-less loan to the Fed? One important feature of the current system is that the EFFR does not cling to the upper side of the rate range (IOER) but hovers below it, falling down to near the ON RRP rate during the final day of the month. The reason for the former is that the banks pay higher FDIC insurance fees when they borrow more. And the reason for the latter is that the banks need to follow the Basel requirements, which limit their leverage, but are calculated based on the end-of-month balance sheet.
Efficiency
As a result, we can see the EFFR fluctuating between ON RRP and IOER — well within the boundaries of the Fed's target FFR. The short-term interest rates (represented by the 3-month Treasury bills) roughly follow the EFFR, which means that the interest rates get propagated beyond the FFM. Note the EFFR spiking down on each last day of the month: EFFR inside target FFR range with 3-month Treasury Bill rate for comparison
Relation to Forex
So why should Forex traders care about this? Because effective federal funds rate and the Fed's ability to uphold it are even more important for the US dollar than the target rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee at its meetings. It is the higher EFFR that would stimulate banks buying more USD to park it either with the Fed or with the GSEs. It is the lower EFFR that would let banks to use the USD as a carry trade short side. Now you see that any significant news concerning GSE regulations, Basel III requirements, or FDIC insurance fee policies could have tremendous influence on the USD rate based on how such news could affect the EFFR. As a currency trader, you have to be up-to-date with the expectations of the FFM participants regarding those three components. I recommend the following resources to stay up-to-date with those topics:
Experienced Traders: help me put my early results in perspective, please?
I'm up almost 20% in one week, without ever risking more than 5-6% of my account balance on any single trade. I'm sure this is unsustainable, but is it possible I could average 5%/week over time? Background: I have spent much of the last decade playing poker professionally, so I am way more experienced with short-term, high pressure, real-time investment decisions than the average n00b forex trader. I read a book on forex and opened a practice account, which I traded successfully for a month before going live. The strategy i developed is pretty simple: -I started with $500 and only trade 10k lots. My plan is to move up to 20k lots when (if?) I hit $1k, 30k lots at $1500 etc. -I only trade the EUUSD. -I hold positions for anywhere from a few minutes to a few hours. -When euusd is moving back and forth within a fairly narrow trading range (10-15 pips), I wait for it to approach the top or bottom of the range and then jump in to catch the rebound. -If I am right, I cash out quickly and take my 3-5 pips and then wait for the next set-up. -If I am wrong and find myself sitting between 5 and 10 pips in the negative, I consult longer timeframe charts to decide whether to kill the trade and cut my losses, or risk another 10-15 pips if I think I just entered too soon and will get it back on the rebound. -If I do choose to hold on once I'm down 10 pips, I cash out as soon as a spike in the right direction gets me even on that trade or just slightly ahead. Sometimes I'll cash out a few pips down if it looks like my rebound is petering out and down a few pips is as close Im gonna get for that trade. -If I hold on and it keeps moving against me, I cut my losses at 20-25 pips. At that point the premise of my set-up (that we're range-bound) is no longer valid. -I steadfastly resist the temptation to add a second 10k to a losing position in an attempt to dollar cost average my way back out of the hole (this was the move that got me in trouble my first week of practice trading) -I close out any short-term positions as the hour when Tokyo, New York, or London begins trading approaches, since this often leads to bigger swings that I cannot predict without better fundmanetals. -When the market is not moving in a predictable range, I sit out and wait for it to either settle (at which point I start short-term scalping again), or make a big move in one direction. -When it swings big (30 pips+ in less than an hour, 80 pips+ over a few hours) I wait for the breakout to stall, then jump in to try and catch the rebound. I'll set a limit at around 50% retracement(basically a fibonacci target with a substantial margin of error). I'll set my stop loss at around 30 pips, generally aiming about 5 pips beyond where the charts show the next big resistance level to be located. I'm willing to risk a few extra pips to decrease the chances that I will get stopped out on a spike that tests just at or just beyond the likely resistance point before failing. I can easily spot a big potential flaw in my approach: my losses are 2-4x the size of my wins, forcing me to be right a big % of the time to stay profitable. Just 2-3 blown trades in a row will eat all the profit of a bunch of wins. That said, I've had 51 winners averaging 4.5 pips against 11 losers averaging 11.4 pips, since I started trading real money. These figures are only slightly better than my averages over 250 practice trades. I strongly suspect that I am running over variance, and I can easily compute that if I flip only one trade each day from winner to loser, I finish the week up 25 pips instead of 100. But even that average would make me rich in a couple years. Frankly, picking off five pips a day seems way easier than beating poker games. What am I missing?? TL;DR: Worried I've just had beginner's luck and I am about to get stomped
What are the distinct characteristics of forex vs other asset markets?
What would you say are some distinguishing features of forex? For example, to me, if you're trading the currencies of two big stable economies, such as the U.S. and Europe, I would imagine the market to be more range bound than the market for a stock since it's very unlikely that a currency just stops existing, while a stock can go to zero.
Gold Forecast: Range Bound Trading. Christopher Lewis on October 19, 2020 Latest News. AUD/USD Forex Signal: Bullish Consolidation Above 0.7248 . 12 hours ago Adam Lemon Technical Analysis BTC/USD Forex Signal: Still Bullish. 12 hours ago Adam Lemon Technical Analysis GBP/USD Forex Signal: Another New 2-Month High. 13 hours ago Adam Lemon Technical Analysis EUR/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Head ... How to Trade in Range-Bound Forex Markets. The main aim of range-bound trading is based on a tendency of price to reverse back to its equilibrium point. This is a straightforward theory that has been implemented in the forex market over the decades. It is based on the relation between the current price of a particular part and the average price. Bonus Tip: The best pairs for trading range-bound strategies are currency crosses. By crosses, we mean those pairs that do not include the USD as one of the currencies in the pair. One of the most well-known currency pair for trading ranges is the EUR/CHF. The similar growth rates shared by the European Union and Switzerland pretty much keep the exchange rate of the EUR/CHF stable. Another ... Range-bound Forex trading (General guidelines) #1: We’ll be discussing methods and ideas for detecting and trading during range-bound markets. These methods are not going to shield you completely from ever changing market weather, but will help you to anticipate and make “weather forecasts” with additional accuracy. Range-bound trading is a trading strategy that identifies stocks trading in channels. By finding major support and resistance levels with technical analysis , a trend trader buys stocks at the ... Pros and Cons of Trading Range Bound Forex Pairs. Forex price ranges can be tricky to trade; there are some advantages and disadvantages in trading ranges. Below we will discuss some pros and cons of the Range Bound currency trading. Pros for Trading Ranges. Clearly Stated Levels For Trading Inner Swings – When you have a range on the chart, you have a clearly stated high and low of a ... As the name suggests, range trading is a strategy or a technique used to trade a range-bound market. Let’s now give a comprehensive definition of what is a trading range? A trading range takes place when a financial instrument (stocks, indices, bonds, commodities, Forex currencies or cryptocurrencies) oscillates between two upwards and downwards boundaries for a period of time.
Range Trading Forex Trading INSTRUCTOR TAKE Richard Krivo ...
#DailyPipTalk #LondonBreakoutTrading #ForexTradingTips Forex Trading With Average Daily Range And Median Price Levels We can use the average daily range and ... #forex #forexlifestyle #forextrader Want to join my VIP group? Get my signals, education, and live chat! Link to join: https://tradernickfx.com/ // SOCIAL FR... इस strategy से FOREX शेयर मार्केट और क्रिप्टो में रोज़ आसानी से पैसा कमाओ Download the #OctaFX #Forex ... Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. This Market Geeks video describes basic factors to help traders determine if markets are trending or are range bound (choppy). Simple visual analysis as well as basic technical indicators are ... Momentum Monday - Trading In A Range bound Market Ivanhoff. Loading... Unsubscribe from Ivanhoff? ... MUST WATCH: 1 Hour Forex Charts Using Mondays Range - Duration: 24:30. Stacey Burke Trading ... Subscribe to Signal Service https://zurl.co/kTq7 . #usdjpy #forex #trading #investment #tradingstrategy #tradesignal #algotrading #tradesystem Strategies for Range Trading Markets. http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/course/technical-analysis.html PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE THIS VIDEO SO WE CAN DO MO...
![[educational] Stretgies for day trading based on Technical Analysis](https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/6VP7f5R9NiUGf-aUNJR6BzgT89dHZVnvRrKnlX4i8iU.jpg "[educational] Stretgies for day trading based on Technical Analysis")
