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 | Disclaimer : submitted by DesmondMilesDant to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] - This series is gonna be about some of the greatest minds in the current financial world talking about their opinion regarding Global Macroeconomics. - This topic will be discussed in series of questions so you can easily skip the part you know the answers of. Reason : Highlighting, Re reading and paragraphing are not the best techniques of learning things in college or school education. Diagrams and question framing are. - This post is about to be super lengthy and is probably gonna be boring too. I don't expect you to read this but I want you to know that this post is gonna be super helpful for you as a Wall Street tradeinvestor who have just started their journey into the financial world. FYI : No short term trade signals available down below, so without any further delay let's begin but first let's check out their works. Credits : Blockworks macro. Left : Joseph Wang Right : Michael J Howell Now let's finally begin. Q1 What is the meaning of the word Liquidity? Explain the difference b/w Liquidity and M2 money supply? There are two types of liquidity. - Funding ( Accounting ) Liquidity : Company ability to pay off debt. ( short term liquidity and debt capacity are the two types ) https://www.bdc.ca/en/articles-tools/entrepreneur-toolkit/templates-business-guides/glossary/liquidity - Market Liquidity : Spread b/w ask and bid.( More spread : Illiquid, Less spread : Liquid ) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bid-askspread.asp#:~:text=The%20bid%2Dask%20spread%20is%20the%20difference%20between%20the%20highest,spread%20will%20have%20high%20demand. Liquidity in terms of balance sheet perspective is as follows For Banks : Deposits at Fed checking account Not Bank : Deposits at Banks, mmf or t-bills Liquidity is not a money supply. Money supply is a retail bank concept. It's effectively a deposit at a retail bank. M2 (Less liquid than M1) = M1 (cash + demand deposits + traveler's check) + savings + time deposits + Certificates of Deposits (cd’s) + Money Market Fund (mmf) Liquidity is just something different. It's a measure of the financing capacity of the financial sector and its ability to fund positions. Generally speaking, liquidity refers to the efficiency or ease with which an asset or security can be converted into ready cash without affecting its market price. The most liquid asset of all is cash itself. So Liquidity = Total amount of credit in system + access to savings There are also other dimensions of Liquidity. - Includes what the Central Bank does. - Includes what the private sector does. - Includes what shadow banks can create in credit terms. - Includes cross border flow. Q2 Why do investors look at Liquidity ? Too see where money was moving and hence you could predict where asset markets are likely to move. For ex : Currently money is parked in rrp. Risk assets and Liquidity moves in lock step. Hence Normal monetary correction : -15 to -20% Recession as well : -30 to -40% Banking crisis : -50 to -60% Q3 How does the Fed look at markets ? The Fed oversees financial system stability & ultimately the health of the real economy. The Fed can only do QT until something breaks. And something will definitely break because the Fed is focused on fighting inflation. Hence it's an assumption Next 6m : Front load this interest rate. In 12m : Reverse course and go back to QE. ( Suggested by Dr. Burry ) So keep buying for 1 or 2yrs in drips. Don’t rush all in at once. May reading : Mid 40's. (3yr low) Latest reading : 40 (-55% drop from 85-90) Goldman Sachs report : Depth of S&P mini-futures is -67% IPO market is down As the rates are rising it's not just that the cost of capital is rising. It's also about the capacity of capital being decreasing. Q4 Which is more important to fight inflation tsunami, QT or rate hike. Explain the difference between banking from the 18th century and this century? Minor movements in rates can lead to huge movements in liquidity. The financial system is the financing system for new capital. It's a refinancing mechanism for debt. The amount of debt outstanding is 300T worldwide. Average 5 yr duration : Roll 60T/yr. 60T is 6x the new issue in the market in both fixed income + equity. Global capEx is : $100T. GDP of the Usa is about : $20T Half of capEx is raised through capital markets at about $10T. But refinancing burden is 6x In refinancing positions interest rates are not a key thing. Think of it as refinancing your mortgage or rolling your mortgage payments. What really matters is whether you're going to roll and whether a bank will take up a new mortgage and not what interest you pay. If you can't get a mortgage, then you're basically unhoused. Bigger the debt burden the bigger the problem. That’s why you need liquidity. All Central Banks kept interest rates low at y2k and 2008. They all wrongly read inflation dampening pressure as monetary deflation. But it was actually cost deflation caused by China entering the trade organization. They competed aggressively, which bid down prices in the goods market and on the high street worldwide. So Central Banks panicked because of this monetary deflation. So they all cut interest rates which encouraged more and more debt ( low interest rates are an incentive to debt ) Let's go back to the British financial system. There was a credit crisis in the 19th century. In May 1866 Overend, Gurney and company (largest bill broker) collapsed owing about £11M equivalent to £1084M in 2021. It was a bankers bank kinda like today's shadow bank. Also, the Bank of England refused to lend them. So there was no lender of last resort. This inspired Walter Bagehot, and he wrote a book called Lombard Street : A description of the money market, and published it in 1873. It was the dawn of the financial system. He came up with this idea called the Bagehot rule. A bank capable of lending freely to the system at a higher rate of interest against good collateral. Right now, look at where we are. The Central Bank is doing the opposite. Lending at low interest rates against poor collateral. Q5 What does it mean when Fed lends and Fed raises rates through Fed funds. Is QE-QT like buying and selling and not lending. Before the Fed founding in 1913 the banking system would get into panic time after time. People used to come to the bank and ask for money and eventually they used to run out of money and everyone used to panic and then the bank failed. Hence the idea of the Fed was to tackle this liquidity problem and lend to banks freely through discount window. So what happened now was if you're a bank and there was a liquidity problem you used to call the Fed and go to the discount window and you'd have this folder of loan that you have on your balance sheet and you'd ask for loan against this collateral. This discount window used to accept a wide range of collateral. But now the Fed has flooded the system with so much liquidity that banks don't have these problems.In the capital market it's often the refinancing mechanism. The new issue, net issuance doesn't grow that much. It's just the same company, the same people just rolling over the current debt. The new money injected comes from the commercial bank or the government. Basically when you refinance you need someone's money to lend it to you. So like bank deposits. You can also have money come out of banks and banks can make that loan or if the money has already been created by Fed then someone else will reallocate those bank deposits through capital markets transactions like a hedge fund. Taking your money and lending it to a corporation. That's another way liquidity can move.If you're doing QT then you're taking away the second part of the money supply. It creates tightening conditions where quantities come to play and it's not just about price. https://preview.redd.it/u0xg0tan26991.png?width=1447&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7d03b05a6616dbe4592c43f7997ed3543512162 They are all similar. All marketplaces are driven by liquidity. The correlation has tightened over the last decade. Earlier 0.6 now 0.8. Net liquidity injection by Fed in US markets Reported balance sheet nope think effective balance sheet ( How much liq Fed put into system ) Tracking b/w liq. and s&p 500 is closer than ever before. Q6 Is the Fed realistic in what it intends to do with the balance sheet? Fed Balance sheet Nyc Fed came out into documents on Open market operations in 2021. In that projection you're looking at a sizable drop in something called Soma ( System open market account ) It's also called the amount of treasury Fed holds. Sci Fi reference : Soma drug in "Brave new world". A feel good drug everyone has. So Soma = Fed monetary drug. Soma account will drop from 9T to 6T basically 3-4 yrs. The Fed intends to remove $1T/yr. If this goes through successfully you will have a huge drop in treasuries price. You've also got a reverse repo which could move up simply because rates are rising. Hence Money market fund rates might go up faster than bank deposit rates because of a lot of demand for reverse repo. So there is a risk of rising rrp to $3T by eoy. Reason : - Not many investments yielding above rrp. - People move out of their checking account because banks will give them 0% whereas the money market could give as high as 3% by eoy. This will all suck a lot of liquidity into rrp and hence you could see M2 contract a lot in absolute terms because you're going to get disintermediation out of the banking system to mmf. So someone needs to be aware of these risks considering inflation is encouraging bank to make high demand for loans So at the end where is the bank gonna get funding from? This is all building upto bank reserves danger which are parked with Fed cashing accounts. Refer S&P500 Fed liquidity chart above If the Fed takes $2T out of the balance sheet the level s&p 500 will go is $3200. There is also a chance of another loss of $800B-$1T due to money sucked by rrp. Hence $2500 can easily come according to this logic. ( Michael burry came with $1800 S&P500 range ) This all hasn't even factored the real economy situation. Q7 Have you seen tightening this rapid or atleast the velocity at this level? This QT is so rapid that $1T out of bank reserves are gone. Tga is also moving down. Soma hasn't moved yet because it's not plunging. https://preview.redd.it/7hb7euy406991.png?width=1443&format=png&auto=webp&s=67bf48d41d740779b9f0174522de610f491713a6 On paper this QT is 5x faster than before. But if you look at the chart it's similar to the y2k liquidity bubble. 1997-2003 So now where to take the position ? Go to the front end of the treasury curve and maybe start to dip a toe in the back end. This judgment will all depend on where inflation settles, what underlying level of inflation is, global backdrop ex : Europe and Japan. Q8 Is the chances of pivot by the Fed so much lower now considering inflation is so much high. The Fed is going with the approach whatever it takes and that includes crashing the stock market. Fed cares about mechanics of financial system so they want market to function - orderly buying and selling. - corporations able to refinance debt. That's how the financial system impacts the real economy. Corporations need to borrow money on a short term or long term basis to make a payroll. As long as these functions are all fine. The drop in equity doesn't matter. It will rather help in tamping down the animal spirit of investors. People buying less will help demand inflation go down. So ans is yes its lower. Q9 Why is Vix still at 25-30 when you have a vicious sell off. Right now we have vicious moves in 1-2month scale, not on a daily scale. We still haven't had a huge spike in daily realized volatility like netflix snowflake on indices. Hence as a result Vix hasn't spiked. Q10 Is an orderly selloff of -1% every week better than a dramatic selloff that could start panic. Liquidity recedes correlation to Vix spike. Hence huge selloff over the course of year but Vix hasn't spiked. Orderly demolition of risk assets is bad if you own puts. When you have these volatile moves there is a chance that something can break but you won't know where. Reaching s&p 3000 over the next few months is good compared to reaching in the next 2 days. Because then that would mean QE the next day. Vix : Volatility tends to begin in Fixed income or forex markets and then it gets created in equity. You have started to see this sequencing. You have got high volatility in the Move index which is Vix for fixed income. And so now you're starting to get more volume in currency markets. Ultimately in the end it will all get triggered into the equity market when recession arrives. So now the question is "Is recession coming" ? Many of the investors are already convinced it's coming if not it's already here. Asia is already in a recession. Europe is just entering one and in the USA it will probably reach in 2-3 months time. Recent earnings reports out of Walmart and Target show whopping increases in inventories. (30%-40% jump) All points to a slower economy in future. https://preview.redd.it/r60ungr706991.png?width=1432&format=png&auto=webp&s=db7d8fe307db97b4097993fff69e859531ad600b There is also an important concept of spillover that we need to know about in month over month inflation numbers in Usa. The persistence levels of inflation are up if compared with 1970's rate. Meaning for every 1% in monthly US inflation you get a spillover of about 0.8% in the next month and 0.6% in the month afterward. So that's a huge amount of persistence right there. Last time we needed volcker to get us out of this persistence. Q11 Does QT moderate the amount of rate hike so that we don't need volcker? Right now, the treasury fed fund rate that's implied by forward curve is about 3.6%. (now 2.9%) It's pretty hard to imagine if the Fed can get to these levels. Everyone views are around 3% because no one thinks the Us economy can handle much more than that. Q12 Fed and Ecb projection of balance sheet is showing QT and reduction in balance sheet by 2025. So will 95B/m rolloff inflation. ( $1T/yr ) https://preview.redd.it/gnjdpqoe06991.png?width=1301&format=png&auto=webp&s=103dbb8a284f42f4f4fe017d041e7c60d73e51e3 First let's discuss Ecb. They will never be able to shrink their balance sheet. They are more worried about spread blow up ( Germany Italy 10yr bond spread ) As for Fed projection : Nyc Fed projection 8 6 9 T by 2030. So if you're an investor the main question you should ask is, are these Central banks here for the long run. If yes then these balance sheets are only going to get increased as years pass on. Hence start thinking about asset classes that you need to hold in an environment where CB's major aim is to continue to be the major player in the market. So logic would say Gold and king of voldemort ( V king ) deserves a place in the long term portfolio. Q13 Why isn't Gold responding to CB's ballooning their balance sheet. Is the part of the reason that the market hasn't woken up to this fact or it's the case of a stronger dollar or it's just a timing issue. If you combine assets that respond to monetary inflation. The answer is Gold+V king together. They match the gyration in liquidity 1:1. The fact that Gold did not go up when liquidity was expanding meant most of the impetus was showered in Voldemort assets. But if you average the two out, it looks reasonable. Q14 Fed current power level = 3 X 2008 power level. Is it real power or not real power at all going forward. The Fed 's main objective right now is to get the balance sheet down which in turn has strengthened the dollar. We know that Fed and Treasury policy impact markets. Now think about what's important in the world for them. The answer is liquidity and global power. We all know what liquidity is, so let's talk about global power. It's also termed as economic power the ability to move capital around. Hence currency and credit are important. So the dollar credit system is paramount within this world system. Q15 B. wood 1 vs B. wood 2 debate ? How does Boj fit here ? This is nonsense. B. wood 1 never went away. Bretton Woods was the dominance of the dollar, basically setting it up at the heart of the world system so that trade flows and capital flows would move around the free world. It excluded China and Russia at that stage. We had the IMF and world bank to police that and you would happen to have a corollary of a fixed rate system. Now from that we got rid of the fixed exchange rate system but everything remains the same. So as the time went by the dollar remained more and more important. There was a speech Janet Yellen made at Atlantic council. It's called friendshiring. What this meant was either you're a friend of America or you're a foe. There is no middle. Friends get access to dollar swap lines and foes don't. Currently we have the world financial system divided into two bits. One controlled by Usa and the other nascent one by the Chinese. Ultimately what it means is there will be a challenge to the dollar system by china. Hence China is setting up equivalent swap lines to lure people into the yuan system. https://preview.redd.it/cvd81u5l06991.png?width=885&format=png&auto=webp&s=59952d82fa95f860b50460fce39ad7a5e9ced8aa So Us is responding to this thread. We all know how everything in world is connected. Look at yen. It has devalued over 40 trading days by annualized rate of 83%. Markets can never do that to such a big currency only governments can do. So someone is shaking that tree by the orders of government. What you have seen in last 5-6 yrs across asian markets is something called Shanghai accord which came out in Shanghai G-20 meeting in spring 2016. It was an attempt to get strong dollar down. What happened was currencies went static across rate in asia with no volatility. https://preview.redd.it/3q950pqm06991.png?width=1426&format=png&auto=webp&s=c8d57bf5640861c40ae7dc26c8eda6647825f0a9 In the last 8-10 weeks that trend has broken. Someone is shaking up things in japan. Currency volatility in Asia has leapt higher. Yen is a trojan horse so China is being forced to tighten liquidity right now. https://preview.redd.it/adp80i3q06991.png?width=1425&format=png&auto=webp&s=bdde5c72b21e091dc01100e5cf900eefa3111c70 No one really knows what Ccb and Pboc will do next. April and May are normally the months for China to inject liquidity into the financial system. So what did they do in the last 2 months ? They have taken 800B yuan out of the system. That is $120B dollars. That is a lot of money for them to do tightening. Q16 Why are Chinese tightening when their manufacturing Pmi is down and they are already in a recession. Shouldn't the Chinese govt., like the USA govt. in 2008, inject liquidity? To try and stop devaluing your currency through Seven ( The Group of Seven i.e. G7 is an intergovernmental organization made up of the world's largest developed economies: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada.) Q17 Why is Fed 3x or 4x important right now ? - Because of Basel 3 regulations. These regulations put constraints on bank's ability to lend. - With Fed you get access to repo and standing repo facilities. - Tax control of Eur-usd market ( About 5yrs ago under trump money was repatriated back to Usa ) - Importance of the fx-swap market. Q18 Does the Fed have reins. Is it a good thing or bad ? Goodness : Everyone expects The Fed has more power than anyone thinks of. They are the lender of last resort. This has basically expanded to everyone. It has expanded its role from lender of last resort back in Gfc to euro dial system through fx-swaps. It has also expanded its role as lender of last dealer to money market funds and also to the shadow banking system. If you look back at 2020 they have further extended lenders of last resort not only to banks but also to corporations.There is a corporate credit facility now. It has also tried to become a lender of last resort to businessmen and individuals through the ppp loan facility which basically works with the government. ( Asking banks to make loans to small business and people ) The Fed does not have the infrastructure to give money to people individually so they have to work through the banking system. Badness : Forced by politicians They have become more influential as well through regulatory aspects. Basel 3 expanded the regulatory power of Central Banks around the globe. Now they are moving to a role where the Fed may be able to suggest to banks that they have to do a certain type of lending. For ex : Making green loans to support green infrastructure. This model is not new. 30 yrs ago in Japan and much of South east Asia CB's operated in this manner. They would direct domestic banks to lend to certain key industries. Central banks don't stand in elections and if you work there you can never be fired. So you also don't know if they are making good decisions or not. In nutshell they have reigned - Eur-usd system. - They have complete control over reserves which they can manipulate with the wand of QE or QT. Q19 Discuss the importance of commercial banks? These banks are important in driving inflation after Gfc 2008. Commercial banks lend to real people which in turn drives businesses. We cannot force banks to lend even though it does enforce an explosion of reserves which can then lead to an explosion of deposits. But these deposits aren't loans they are deposits from bank buying treasuries + Mbs from their own customer or must i say government. But if this inflationary cycle keeps on repeating then disaster is soon to happen. After the disaster , the Fed won't be able to stimulate bank lending. Hence questions we must ask is will Fed not be able to moderate bank lending and what if we have banks lend out way too much in 2022-23. Does Fed even have control over that? So many economists are betting that the next phase would be introductions of digital currency. It would be a toolkit for the Fed to be able to do things like above. Last year Saule T Omarova, a professor in law from one of top bank regulator was nominated for paper on how economy would operate in CBDCs https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3715735 In nutshell : The Fed would make loans and determine who gets the money or not. We're not there just yet or we're still building technology and infrastructure for it. If you look at 20 yrs in the future you would think the Fed would certainly be in fashion for political want. Meaning politicians would have more influence over who gets money. So make sure you have friends in politics. https://preview.redd.it/fb5dlcjs06991.png?width=1511&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c4955924292ad0291fe4b247a2f1016925308dd Less bank credit creation in 2022 rivals historic growth since last year. Bank deposits look set for first annual decline since early 90's which sounds deflationary but that decline from bank deposits is due to QT & reverse repo and not credit creation itself. ( Creating money using alchemy ) Q20 The Fed doesn't have the ability right now to stop banks from lending. What happens if inflation goes to 10-12% because of this ( lending is like creating money ) ? There are some segments in the economy which are still okay. Bank credit creation is strong. At least well enough to lend people. We're still in an inflationary environment where everything costs more. Everything costs more hence everyone needs to borrow more to buy things you used to buy. We are definitely going to have a slower economy in the next 2-3 years with a recession somewhere. It will be then you would expect credit creation to slow down. So we don't see disasters in this manner but yes the storm clouds are approaching. The hurricane Dimon was probably talking about is if there is a recession, still the large corporations will help accelerate loans in the near term because they will draw down predetermined loan credit lines when they need them. This is feasible. But the main issue is how banks will fund their balance sheet and that kind of lending in a recession environment where deposits must be shrinking and money markets are tightening hugely. And then there is also the bigger problem of the Fed accident during QT. Q21 Who to buy what in treasuries i.e. bond market and why ? And why not if so? There are a number of moving parts when you decide to go on shopping for treasuries. - What is the underlying inflation - Will growth actually slow The most likely scenario is we are gonna have a repeat of what we saw precovid. Let's discuss inflation part : In Usa we have 2-3% inflation targets. That's largely demographically driven because of an aging society as all west have low inflation. The deflation of Japan shows us that. But it will take time to get there due to the persistent nature of inflation. Bond market will price near term surge and hence we will not get an unnecessary hike at the front end. Hence the Fed fund would go as high as 4% only and not above. Now for growth part : Back end of the treasury is driven by the term premium. Term premiums are already very negative. And they can go more negative as well. What we investors need to know is equity never rallies until there has been a subsequent or previous surge in the fixed income market. 10 yr bonds prices have to move significantly up before equity begins to turn. In other words you're gonna see a drop in long yields at some stage. And that my friends is a recession driven environment where first long bond yields go up while stocks fall and then we will see that turn or rally up in equity. Another way to look at it is through a S&D and B&S lens which could be contradictory to above. Supply : So if you account for QT the supply of treasuries is gonna be $1.5T each. That's a lot for the market to handle in this slowly decreasing liquidity. Hence we are seeing large moves with small volumes. Demand : For the past few years we had different sets of marginal buyers. Precovid : It was Hedge funds doing basis trade. Comparing today to that time they have taken exposure down by $1T. Past 2020 : Fed (doing QE) and commercial bank (picking QE cash to work) Now : All have gone away. We are going to have a new buyer somewhere down the line. We just don't know who it is. Foreigners aren't gonna buy because when they do they have to Fx hedge it. When you Fx hedge it's based on front end rates and front end rates are going higher too like back end. So it's not worth it for them. So we don't know who it is gonna be hence there is going to be a phase of price discovery that is probably gonna be volatile and probably much higher in yields than the marginal buyer of past years. The Hedge funds buy these treasuries as part of a spreadsheet. They don't care where yields are by themselves. Fed too doesn't care and neither does commercial banks which are regulatory driven. Foreign banks are partially regulatory driven and in part what they have at home is negative notes. So if you want it to move to common folks who look at it as fundamentally then you're gonna need higher yields. Hence rates will go higher than normal levels. Q22 Discuss aging demographics in 2022. Is it really deflationary like Japan taught us or something has changed and we are starting to see its actually inflationary? How does it affect bonds and stocks? This idea of the aging demographic being inflationary and not deflationary is a very fascinating concept. Basically what these new papers are saying is when you have lower supply of labor and if you decrease the supply of labor in the labor market what you're gonna get is higher prices because wages will go higher due to shortage of labor. Ex : A person is retired at 60 who no longer is producing goods and services into the economy. However he continues to consume products or buy yachts or whatever else by living a high standard of life or the same standards he used to when young. So monetary demand for more goods and services reduces supply of labor. This means higher prices. But these so-called old economists point to Japan as to how the aging demographic can be deflationary. People who hold these views believe that in a global world, labor is a global pool. So even though Japan was itself aging globally there was still an enormous supply of labor from China and from developing countries. But that's changed now. Going forward, China is also aging pretty quickly because of the one child policy. So you're seeing more people buying and consuming but fewer fewer people working. So structurally it seems inflationary. So bonds will be bought and you should dca whereas you don't touch stocks until bond yields peaks. Q23 Discuss what other factors you must think about making your first bond purchase. Summary : What Central Banks will be doing. Although in the previous statement we have dismissed foreign banks like Ecb and Boj but they still do play some role in the bond market. Reason : a) Bonds tend to correlate much more than equities do. The fact is if Ecb loses the battle on inflation which it looks like it is right now rapidly what effect does it gonna have on Bund. The charts don't look great and could easily feed into the treasury market. b) The other thing to look at is the devaluation of Yen. It continues to devalue itself as we speak. Add more bond buying ( they have yield controls ) by them recently. At some point reality will hit Boj and they are gonna have to tighten policy and that is going to create a ripple effect in the bond market. Hence we may get pressure on bond market through these two shocks. Hence we need to dip a toe in the long end of the market but it would be more comfortable to be on the front end. Overall : A shock by Boj to let their 10yr bond go to 50bps ( current 0.22% ) could surprise a lot of people and most of them won't be prepared for that. Idea being global bond investor will then look at german 10yr bund in same way as they look at 10yr treasury yield. They just hedge risk 10yr jpy government bonds. So if bund goes from 1 to 3 ( current 1.51% ) then 10yr treasury will go from 3 to 5 ( current 3.2% ) Q24 Till now we have established conservation on how high the Fed funds go (max 4%) or how high short end go. But if you look at financial conditions in the Goldman Financial index which is related to GLI and has a lot more factors like dollar, interest rate, Fed tightening monetary conditions. Does equity have more room to downside? Does credit spreads need to widen and can you discuss more about why 3.5% or 4% is the highest Fed fund note 5%. ( A tail risk scenario ) You don't necessarily have to look at the Goldman financial index. Just look at the treasury market and dissect it. https://preview.redd.it/etimorbv06991.png?width=1098&format=png&auto=webp&s=65c8c4037e283452cc23e95ebc353c71484d5bec Front end (interest rate exp) : 1-3 yr , 1-5yr spread for what markets are pricing for Fed rate hikes. Back end ( Term premia ) : 5-10yr is for whats a crude measure and not a bad measure for what term premia on bonds will be. Right now the yield curve is steepening on the front end (very vicious ) and flattening ( very vicious ) on the back end. https://preview.redd.it/zw8wp7ly06991.png?width=1427&format=png&auto=webp&s=50865b9993f2b7355b51c885a6591ac7e864f00b This is telling us that the rate expectations are going up and the term premia is collapsing. Collapsing term premium is all about changing risk appetite. It's all telling us that bond investors don't want to take any risk. They want the safety of a safe asset which is a 10yr bond. Now let's look at what it's telling us from a corporate point of view. Corporate raise money in about 3-5yr areas. So the first point being the cost of financing has gone up because of the front end rise. Secondly the appetite for debt has collapsed because of much more negative term premia. https://preview.redd.it/n8ens8t716991.png?width=1443&format=png&auto=webp&s=47f69b146209ad61dc85ac4c1981f951006bb00b So this configuration of flat yield curve with giant belly around mid duration yields is the worst outlook for any bond investors. Much worse than inverted yield curve. https://preview.redd.it/1p68iika16991.png?width=1472&format=png&auto=webp&s=0141dd142f78d14e19e1e7ddd1eae1b3ca5dad03 Now you need to dissect the front end and back end movement. So now you're seeing a black line ( rate exp ) i.e. 1yr fwd 10yr out suggesting terminal fed funds around 3.5%. Now this orange line is term premia measuring risk appetite of investors in fixed income market. This has collapsed. Now what youre seeing here is black line cross orange line called the credit market death cross. This tells us within 12m a big problem will arise in credit market. Hence youre seeing credit spread widening about 6-12m after this above pattern unfolding. Red : Down below is a chart that have z score of different credit spreads like high yield, junk (CCC-B, B-AAA) , quality spread (BAA-AAA) these sort of things in index Yellow : 10-5y US treasury yield inverted and advanced by 12m. What happening this is tracking exactly the movement what the treasury yield curve is suggesting. https://preview.redd.it/ziqd088c16991.png?width=1325&format=png&auto=webp&s=c92f0b6efb1083c257063a9feb2be43c4b35d80d Q25 Is HYG down -10% Ytd because of credit spread widening or rate hikes ? Do you think the Fed thinks about term premia? Do they want it to go up or down ? Credit markets are imploding. But this is due to rise in risk free rate which is fed but not widening of credit spread as every noob on twitter or wsb will say. https://preview.redd.it/wptg4icd16991.png?width=1403&format=png&auto=webp&s=db9c176346c39e94a40427653173260a00d63a97 There is a hedged version of HYG called HYGH. ( interest rate version of HYG ) You can clearly see whether it's because of credit spreads widening or because of interest rates. The Fed does care about term premia and they want it to go wider. That's what QT is all about. QE : Compress term premia. So people shift portfolios to other assets and take out loans for housing. QT : Expand term premia and Fed let markets digest more treasury. QT for treasury is a bit strange. See Mbs for example. Once we know it's gonna be QT then markets become aware of it and spread b/w agencies and 10yr widens significantly. For treasuries it hasn't been much. We don't know if markets are slow or something else is happening that we don't know of. Over the coming months a lot more treasury will come into markets. Hence term premia will expand a lot more. Who knows what credit spread will do going forward but everyone's guess is it should widen a lot. If this doesn't happen then that would mean departure from history. Q26 What is the difference between good liquidity and bad liquidity? How does it result in a change in the FX market , currencies as well as the yield curve? https://preview.redd.it/lkglbx6e16991.png?width=935&format=png&auto=webp&s=2315e108013158d20017db014ee8b57e92044a12 When we think of liquidity we should think of quality and quantity. Now this is what drives the fx market, fixed income market and also where we take the yield curve as probably the best measure of the fixed income market. Look at the graph below Good liquidity is created by the private sector. Corporations create a lot of cash or households manage to produce lots of savings. This cash generation is coming from a vibrant economy. A vibrant economy then causes currency strengthening. Bad liquidity is created by Central banks. It's bad from a forex point of view and hence the currency weakens. So what you want to look at from a currency perspective is to subtract Fed liquidity from private sector liquidity creation. And that will tell you how the forex market will be moving. What traditional academics do is they lump all money or liquidity together and start to compare US liquidity with let's say Canada, Japan or Mexico. This way above is a more accurate way of predicting currencies. (Looking quality mix and then taking that relative) The other dimension to look at is what drives fixed income market.(sum of liquidity which is pure quantity and not quality) So the private sector creates liquidity. It's creating a lot of cash. The Fed is the one that creates that cash. Domestic investors are not bothered where it came from and if there's a lot of equity they can just go and use that liquidity and go down risk of bonds, stocks, voldemort asset class, commodities or lets say credit. In layman terms : When corporations do liquidity they go to banks for borrowing which in turns creates goods and services. Meaning a good debt will be invested. But when Central banks do liquidity it's providing money to the government to spend. They will then give it to friends or people with special interest. This in turn creates bad debt. Q27 Why is PBOC ( People's Bank of China ) not stimulating given they are in a recession ? Why is their strategic priority stability if China has many trillions of dollars as reserves ? Are they really afraid of yen-like depreciation that they don't want to stimulate right now and suffer the same fate as them ? To answer these questions we need to look at the evolution of capitalism. As capital in this regime becomes mature you want to export itself and go international. For this you need purchasing power and hence a strong currency gives you that. The Chinese want yuan to be used as a vehicle and savings currency. So basically a strong yuan will enhance that situation. So they want stable currency because they look for stability. In capital wars we learn that the goal of Chinese authority is to challenge the dollar. They want to get rid of it particularly in Asia (India recently purchased oil from Russia in yuan ~ Market Insider) and the route to do it is basically by three paths. - Re-denomination Chinese trade in yuan. - Open Bond market to foreign - Creating a digital currency Q28 Why is China setting up so many swap lines around the Asia region ? The purpose of swap lines is for yuan denominated trade. So basically they are preparing for Euro-Renminbi. To stop that someone is shaking up the tree in Japan vigorously to put pressure on yuan. Yen is your Trojan horse from Troy which is trying to break that stability that the Chinese government is so proud of by putting pressure on China given the integration of the Japanese economy with china. Look at Korea, India. Their currency has been devalued too recently. The Chinese are trying to stop this storm. This long term geopolitics macro politics objective is to take this as no1 priority over the strength of the Chinese economy i.e. health of real estate, steadying credit market, stock market etc. Q29 Discuss the Chinese balance sheet ? Pretty much everyone is saying China will do a monetary ease. They did a big one after gfc. They haven't really done anything since 2016. They do a very tiny stimulus ( did this yr in april ) hence their balance sheet is flat line. They love growth and stability over injecting Soma drugs into the system. Thank you guys Sorry for ruining your Saturday day or night w/o any jokes. I really have no clue when to post this kind of sh9t. I’m still figuring it out. “Keep enjoying life. Stay in cash and park with mmf in rrp if you really wanna be in safest asset or just take out your money from bank coz if we are going into depression there’s gonna be bank run” With lots of love Regards Uchiha |
A country like China that runs a trade surplus has to invest in foreign assets and there are few other choices but US bonds, said Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at Peking University and a veteran China observer.
China, which is known as the workshop for the world, has been accumulating foreign income from its exports since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001.Last year, China's trade surplus.
Based on US Treasury data, US government bonds account for about a third of the value of China's overall foreign exchange reserves, which stood at US$3.22 trillion in January, according to exchange regulator State Administration Of Foreign Exchange.
"Europe needs to acquire assets abroad and it would not welcome the consequence of too much money shifting out of the dollar into euros because that would force up the value of the euro and make it difficult for the Europeans to run current account surpluses, which they have to run, like China, because domestic demand is too weak," he said.
While developing countries would welcome China's investment, such exposure is deemed too risky, Pettis said, and the same also applies to gold and other commodities, as reserve assets should be in relatively stable investments during turbulent times.
"It is difficult for the United States to completely decouple from China, and freezing or even confiscating China's reserve assets can only be an extremely rare crazy outcome," Wang said.
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