Part 1submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]
If someone said to me, "Hey, I've got $10 million and want 15% a year . I don't want to be in the market more than 3 hours a week". I'd say, "I got this. Give me close of New York session on Friday to 2 hours before the market close. Easy gig."
You may be asking yourself, why the end of the market on a Friday? Is this not the worst time to be trading? I'll let you into a secret ... I am phenomenal at procrastinating. That's why!
It's is actually part of a larger theory. I think there are tendencies towards weeks that have had certain price action to complete certain patterns. The closer to the end of the week we get, the more checkpoints in these patterns price will have had to hit. If any of the important checkpoints fail, no trade. If they all match up, highly confluence confirmed trade - high expectancy of profitability or flat results.
I've explained some of the tendencies in post where someone was asking if we think day of the week is important.
In the correct market conditions weeks tend to close with small wicks on the close side. This tells us they close strong, and therefore the is undeniable logic in the idea that if price is not at the high/low on Friday morning, you could really close your eyes and make a profitable trade just betting the week closes strong and make money any week it does.
Of course not all weeks do close strong, but once we add the prerequisites of a trading day explained in part 1, it is far more likely we will have a week that ends strongly. We then further improve our chance of this being confirmed or filtered out as invalid by using short tern intra-day strategies that are used for trend following. What this gives us is a marry up of a macro plan and a micro plan, using meta strategies to execute into the business end of things. We have the luxury of information. With good preparation we can use that information to stack our statistical probabilities favourably.
Another concept worth being aware of is time of day (TOD). The markets will often have cycles in which they move. In the same way some weeks action can be seen to follow an almost template like sort of price action, so can the hours throughout the day.
When the market is to make a trending move, we often see this broken up into these sort of timezones.
1 - Low/high of the day is made in or around the hour of the London open.
2 - The reversal move from that will usually taper out in the hours around New York.
3 - Chicago open time will usually give a correction of the days move.
4 - In the last 4 to 5 hours of the week price will usually make new high/low in line of weeks prevailing direction.
5 - Usually some sort of spike happens 1 - 2 hours before the market closes. This is an exit signal if targets have not hit.
These can be a couple hours or so out, but if they are drastically out I am less inclined to trade. It's not meeting my checklists.
An interesting quirk of the Forex markets i as I mentioned above London is often the high/low of the day in a trend. Why is this? I do not know. I'd speculate it's something to do with London being the largest session and for them to put on their positions in the morning they do a stop run (creating the H/L) and then reverse the market. The same theory could be applied to why New York corrects the London move, to spike out stops and get better liquidity on their entry.
In the right conditions, it happens quite a lot. This is what makes trade 2 in this sequence such a good trade. As well as it having multiple reasons to back it up and having it's own trend meta strategy to engage with, it's also working inside the framework of London often being the low on any given trending day, and Friday tending to end strong. What is the space in-between these called? Free money! Okay, that's a bit much. I'd say it qualifies as a "Place of interest", though.
This all looks great on paper, but can it practically be applied in the market? Yes. This is what I want to show you.
In part 1, I showed the GBPUSD chart I was looking at for my possible Friday trade.
Here is today's action. I've started by drawing a fib from the low of the big move up to the high. People will wonder why it's not from the very low ... and I am one of they people. I've done this a lot, and when you see this big impulsive leg like this (psst, people will usually alert you to when these happen in forum chatter, usually in the guise of unexpected news events) this is where to draw the fib from.
GBPUSD 5 MIN
I drop in pending orders, I risk 0.2 in two pending orders. I am willing to take more risk and add more positions if I see what I am looking for, but I want low risk on first touch pending orders I may not be here to see. In this case I wasn't. One of my orders filled, one missed. Had I been at my desk, I'd have executed other trades here based on the price action at the 61.8% (shown in part 1).
The green line shows my trade.
I exit by trailing stop close to the high of the swing. As explained in P1, I am looking for a failed high here (or tiny breakout) to exit and await a re-load. I now draw my fibs from the low to the high of this swing (if the high changes, I have to adjust my fibs. I set alerts to tell me if this happens, and I set alerts on my entry area to look for PA entries). Again I set pending orders with low risk, and intend to scale up if I like what I see.
It's possible I've missed this. There was a spike down from the approx area I'd expect that came up ever so short of the 61.8. With it only having one low this is not something I could have taken advantage of. I used to think of these as missed opportunities, but realistically the amount I can control my risk going for these trades makes it an overall negative edge (loses over 100's trades). A trader with a cooler mind tends to drive a cooler car. I do not chase these.
If I get my fill on these in the next hour or two, I will be looking for an impulse leg up into new highs, and if I see that I will also expect there to be some little climax (spike) to the move. My trading actions for this are explained in part 1.
Current Gain = 0.2%
Max risk exposure possible - 0.4%
Max real equity drawdown - < 0.1%
https://preview.redd.it/p9ga08w641121.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2e6efec7a84f437fab19c8d2e65a737bfbc3d38fsubmitted by iforexrobot to u/iforexrobot [link] [comments]
What Is an Algorithm or Forex Robot?
In its simplest form, an algorithm is a list of steps needed to solve a problem. When referring to algorithmic trading, we refer to steps written in machine language so that a computer can understand what you want and execute trades on behalf of you and your goals. An algorithm spans multiple functions outside of trading but either way the algorithmis used; it has a clear purpose to help compute large datasets in an efficient manner while abiding by key rules to help ensure the desired outcome. Algorithms accomplish this feat without having to worry about human biases or mental fatigue and high-level and high-frequency decision-making.
-Algorithm Trading Styles
The following list is not inclusive but does cover many commonly used strategies and styles in algorithmic trading:
Mean Reversion: Reverting to the mean takes the idea that an extended move away from a long-term average is likely short-term and due for a reversion or retracement. Algorithms that quantify extended moves based on an oscillator will utilize the average price over a set time and use that level as a target. There many popular tools and calculations for quantifying an extension that is due to revert but risk management must also be included in the algorithm encasing new trend is developing.
Trend following: Trend following is the first, and still very popular technique of algorithmic-based momentum investing. Trends are easy to see, but can be hard to trade without the help of an algorithm. Because algorithms take over for the mind and the minds inherent biases, many of the fears that plague discretionary trend followers do not effect algorithms. A common fear when riding a strong trend is that it is about to turn or end, but that fear is often unfounded. One of the first widely followed trend following algorithms looked to buy a 20-day price breakout and hold that trade until a 20-day price low took them out of the trade. The traders who have and still do employ this algorithmic approach and other similar approaches are often amazed at how long the strongest trends extend that they would have likely exited had their algorithms not managed the trade and exit on their behalf.
News Trading: Another popular style of trading in the archaic world of discretionary trading that now belongs to the Quants is news trading. These strategies scan high important news events and calculate what type of print relative to prior news events and expectations would be needed to place a trade. As you can imagine, the efficiency of receiving the data and calculating whether a trade should be placed in entering that trade is of key focus. This form of algorithmic trading often gets the lion share of media’s attention.
Arbitrage:Arbitrage is a word that has multiple meetings and strategies built around the concept. Historically, you could have euros trading in London at a different price than in New York so that a trader could buy the lower and sell the higher until equilibrium had been established. Nowadays, arbitrage algorithm strategies are more geared to highly correlated assets whose underlying fundamental effects are very similar. When a wide spread in value between the highly correlated assets are recognized, the algorithm will either by the lower and or sell the higher until an equilibrium is met similar to the mean reversion strategy.
High-Frequency Trading and Scalping: For our purposes, will look at these as synonymous even though trading desks and hedge funds view them separately. True high-frequency trading attempts to beat out other traders to the thousand of a second and to do so some firms position their computers next door to an exchange to see in one millisecond faster than a competitor if something is rising by a penny.
Unless you’re looking to buy a house next to the New York Stock Exchange to compete with billion-dollar hedge funds, short-term trading or scalping is likely more up your alley. Even this term has evolved over time whereas traders use to look to make profits on the difference in the bid-ask spread but now has taken a wider meeting for very short-term traits.
For more information about algorithmic trading, click here
Learn how to trade the London breakout strategy and some effective ways to beat the smart money. We’re bringing to you a day trading strategy that has been successfully used by our London traders. The London breakout trading strategy incorporates secret trading concepts that you can take advantage of in the Forex market.. If this is your first time on our website, our team at Trading ... Forex trading strategy “London breakout ” is one strategy that is quite popular in forex. In its development, each trader/analyst who developed this strategy gave a different name, but the concept was the same, namely using the movement ahead of the opening of the London market. The strategy included in the category of a mechanical trading system is designed to “catch” the rapid ... Simple London Breakout Forex Trading Strategy is a combination of Metatrader 4 (MT4) indicator(s) and template. The essence of this forex system is to transform the accumulated history data and trading signals. Simple London Breakout Forex Trading Strategy provides an opportunity to detect various peculiarities and patterns in price dynamics which are invisible to the naked eye. Based on this ... The London trading session is the biggest market mover for the Forex market and the London breakout strategy aims to benefit from the steep spikes during the first few hours of the London session. To be more precise, 1 to 3 hours after the London session starts. The London breakout Forex trading strategy is used to trade the London Forex session during the first few hrs (1-3 hrs) when the Forex market opens in London.. Indicators: You do not necessarily need any indicators for The London Day Break Trading Strategy but this Forex trading session mt4 indicator may be helpful. You also must be able to draw horizontal lines on your Forex chart. The London Breakout Strategy is a momentum trading strategy that uses the coiled up energy from the Asian session. It’s no different from other Forex breakout strategies in that regard but the difference is “when” we use this particular strategy. What Do You Need To Trade The Breakout At The London Open Let’s take a look in detail about the London breakout trading strategy and how can use this method to generate profits in the forex markets. The London breakout trading strategy explained. As the name explains, the London breakout trading strategy builds upon the increased activity during the first hour of trading. London Breakout Strategy. Simple morning forex breakout strategy; Trade in just 10 minutes per day; Defined entry, exit and stop loss levels for signals; Complete GBP/USD breakout indicator rules provided; Reliable MetaTrader breakout indicator; Trade the London Breakout. Our London open breakout strategy is designed to capture moves that occur within the first two hours of the London trading ... London breakout strategy is very profitable intra-day trading system. This strategy can give 30-50 pips everyday from every major pair. Principle of this trading strategy is very simple and easy to use. New traders can make profit from this strategy easily. Market usually remains in ranging mode on Tokyo session. London session starts after the end of Tokyo session. Then market acceleration ... Das in London ansässige Broker wurde bereits mehrfach als bester Forex Broker ausgezeichnet. Die für eine Daily Breakout Strategie empfohlenen Majors können zu engen Spreads ab 0,6 Pips gehandelt werden. Für Einsteiger erfreulich ist, dass die Eröffnung eines Handelskontos keine Mindesteinzahlung erfordert. Sie möchten die Strategie zunächst risikolos testen? Kein Problem, nutzen Sie ...
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